海上运输是实现全球性国际贸易的主要手段。干散货航运市场是航运市场的重要组成部分，受到经济和贸易，政治环境和自然条件等诸多因素的影响，市场运行期间具有较强的周期性和波动性特征。此外，干散货航运市场还存在船东众多、进出市场相对容易和市场信息相对透明等特点。全球经济危机的爆发导致世界经济萎缩，国际干散货航运市场也随之跌入低谷，波罗的海干散货运价指数近年来大幅下挫，萎靡不振，一些航运公司已将国际运力转移到国内干散货运输市场作为应对措施。干散货航运国际市场运力过剩，国内市场遭遇船舶回流，严重挤压了国内运输能力，给国内沿海散货承运企业带来极大压力。 在复杂的沿海干散货运输市场形势下，运价越来越趋于市场化。作为干散货航运市场的参与主体，航运企业面临着不同的风险，其中市场价格风险对企业的影响贯穿于运营期间，对航运企业的影响也更为明显。而这种风险使船东和租船人处于经济上的不利地位，并面临可能遭受巨大经济损失的危险。随着航运金融的快速发展，用于描述运价波动的运价指数已逐渐成为全球航运运营商和相关投资者的主要决策基础。运价指数回报率受多重因素影响，其中不乏政治、经济甚至军事等因素，但航运市场的供需变化始终是其最为重要的影响因素之一。因此，在干散货运价波动加剧的背景下，通过风险管理规避市场价格风险成为航运企业经营的重中之重。同时，发掘沿海干散货运价的波动特征对航运相关主体进行买卖、租赁、拆解船舶和制定规避风险等具有重要的指导意义。 本文首先阐述了沿海干散货市场运价波动的研究背景、研究的主要内容，并阐述了文章研究思路，明确了文章的主要创新点。 第二章从航运市场波动、干散货运输市场风险传导和沿海干散货运价波动风险管理三方面入手，对国内外现有的研究成果进行梳理；以风险管理理论和套期保值理论为研究的理论基础，对干散货运输市场运价波动模型进行的归纳总结。 第三章主要分析了沿海干散货运输市场、相关市场和沿海干散货衍生品市场的发展现状，研究了影响沿海干散货运输市场运价波动的主要因素，并运用随机波动模型对沿海干散货市场运价的波动聚集效应、波动杠杆效应进行分析，全面刻画了沿海干散货运价的波动特征。 第四章研究了干散货运输市场的风险传导效应，对干散货市场内部及其与相关市场之间的风险溢出效应的研究成果进行分析，并研究了各航运市场之间风险的传导机制。主要运用多元随机波动率模型，对国内外干散货运价的相互影响机制、沿海干散货与市场之间的风险溢出效应进行定量研究。 第五章主要研究了国内外干散货市场风险管理的各种方法及其特点，着重分析了航运市场存在的风险及主要的风险规避方法。运用多元随机波动率模型研究了中国沿海煤炭运费衍生品的套期保值效果，估计了最优静态套期保值率和动态套期保值率。 第六章作为全文的结论与展望，总结全文的研究结果，讨论了文章的局限性，并指明了未来的研究方向。 关键词：运价波动；沿海干散货；市场风险传导；风险管理；随机波动率模型； GC-MSV模型；MCMC算法

 Maritime transport is the primary means of achieving global international trade. The dry bulk shipping market is an important part of the shipping market. It is influenced by many factors such as economy and trade, political environment and natural conditions. The characteristics of dry bulk shipping market includes strong cyclical and volatility during market operation, numerous shipowners, enter the market easily and market information transparency. Affected by the global financial crisis, the world economy has fallen sharply, and the international dry bulk shipping market has been sluggish. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has declined in recent years. Some shipping companies have shifted their international capacity to the domestic dry bulk shipping market as their response measure. The excess capacity of international dry bulk shipping market reflow to the domestic market, which has severely squeezed domestic transportation capacity and brought great pressure to domestic coastal bulk carriers. Freight rates are becoming more and more market-oriented in the situation of complicated coastal dry bulk shipping market. As a participant of dry bulk shipping market, shipping companies face different risks. The impact of market price risk runs through the company's operation period, and the impact is more obvious. Shipping company operators face the uncertainty of fluctuations in freight rates during their operation, which makes shipowners and charterers at an economic disadvantage and suffers from huge economic losses. With the rapid development of shipping finance, the freight index used to describe the fluctuation of freight rates has gradually become the main decision-making basis for global shipping operators and related investors. The rate of return of freight index is affected by multiple factors, including political, economic and even military factors, but the supply and demand changes in the shipping market have always been one of the most important factors. Therefore, it is a top priority for shipping companies to carry out effective risk management to avoid market price risks in the context of increased volatility in dry bulk freight rates, and it is also important to explore the volatility characteristics of coastal dry bulk freight rates through timely and accurate research for trading, leasing, dismantling ships and developing risk-averse strategies. Chapter one firstly describes the research background and the research content about coastal dry bulk freight market. Then by expounding the research methods of this paper, it also clarifies the main innovation points of this paper. The second chapter introduces the price fluctuation and the market risk conducting of dry bulk shipping market and the corresponding risk management of the freight fluctuations. It also sorts out the current research findings at home and abroad. Based on the theoretical basis of risk management theory and hedging theory, this paper summarizes the freight rate fluctuation model of dry bulk shipping market. The third chapter mainly analyzes the development status of the coastal dry bulk shipping market, related markets and coastal dry bulk derivatives market, and studies the main factors affecting the fluctuation of freight rates in the coastal dry bulk shipping market, and uses the stochastic volatility model for coastal areas. The volatility aggregation effect and the volatility leverage effect of the dry bulk market freight rate are analyzed, and the fluctuation characteristics of the coastal dry bulk freight price are comprehensively described. The fourth chapter studies the risk conduction effect of the dry bulk shipping market, analyzes the current research of the risk spillover effect inside and outside the dry bulk market, and discusses the risk transmission mechanism among shipping markets. GC-MSV model is mainly used to quantitatively study the mutual influence of dry bulk shipping prices at home and abroad, and the risk spillover effect between coastal dry bulk cargo and the market. The fifth chapter studies various methods and characteristics of risk management in the dry bulk market at home and abroad, focusing on the risks and the methods of risk aversion in the shipping market. Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model is used under the minimum variance criterion, to estimate the hedging effect of China's coastal coal freight derivatives and the optimal static and dynamic hedging rate. The last chapter is the conclusion and prospect of the full text. It summarizes the research results of the full text, discusses the limitations of the article, and points out the future research direction. KEYWORDS: Freight fluctuations, Coastal dry bulk, Market risk conducting, Risk management, Stochastic Volatility Model, GC-MSV model, MCMC Algorithm