由于近一二十年来中国城市化的快速推进以及汽车行业的飞速发展，家庭与个人对于购买私家车的需求越来越高，选择也日益增多。同时，日益增长的私家车保有量以及个人交通出行需求的增多也导致了我国成为了世界上主要的二氧化碳等温室气体排放国，一系列碳排放相关的节能减排政策，如碳排放税，企业碳排放权交易等，配合着各种采用最新动力技术的新能源汽车的推广，正改变着个人消费者的出行、购车等一系列能源消费选择。其中，个人碳配额交易机制，作为配额交易机制在消费者端的应用，除了具有与碳排放税等现行政策同样的减排效率，更由于其强大的经济激励效果，加上总量控制的创新理念，对消费者决策有着更加明显的影响。因此，本文将研究个人碳配额交易机制与消费者交通出行选择的相关问题，对相关领域的研究进行讨论，分类，补充和总结。具体的研究内容主要包括： (1)基于静态优化模型，分析消费者购车成本，建立关于新能源汽车和传统燃油汽车的消费者的优化选择模型。之后，基于排放权交易理论，分析个人碳配额交易机制下的二氧化碳排放配额的供求曲线，推导市场出清条件下的均衡价格以及探讨关键的影响因素和效果。研究碳配额价格能否或需要满足何种条件才能激励消费者采取出行碳减排行为并考虑购买新能源汽车。最后通过实证数据分析影响政府具有高成本效益的节能汽车补贴的因子，为具体的车补额度设计提供理论依据。研究发现，均衡的碳配额价格，将成为左右消费者新能源汽车购买决策的关键因素，长期来看，通过购买新能源汽车来提高燃油效率，可以显著降低个人出行碳排放，节约配额花费。另一方面，汽油价格和市场利率显著影响碳补贴额度政策，但其影响并不相同。汽油价格对碳补贴有负面影响，而利率对碳补贴有正面影响。 (2)根据中国新能源汽车市场购买的实际情况，加入对时间，油价波动等因素的考虑，将上述消费者购车选择研究的静态经济模型推广至长期的、动态的汽车换购决策模型。之后利用动态规划的方法，探究上述因子对消费者新能源汽车换购意愿以及相应政府补贴效应的影响。对未来的节能汽车定价，车补动态调控等问题具有重要的借鉴意义。研究发现，政府提供的补贴正在显著促进新能源汽车换购的推广。同样的，消费者旧车的折旧、用车和维护成本也显著影响其换购时间，当维护成本的逐年显著增长时，消费者更倾向于考虑换购新能源汽车。此外，消费者的换购决策对于汽油价格波动十分敏感。在油价相对平稳的地区，更多消费者已经有理由对已有传统燃油汽车进行更换。政府应该考虑相应的稳定油价的配套政策，来推广新能源汽车，最终达到节能减排的目标。 (3)引入消费者心理消费行为，根据心理账户理论和报童模型，建立个人碳配额交易机制下的消费者配额库存决策模型，摒弃文献中的即时交易假设，分析不同消费群体中的消费者在未来出行需求和碳排放效用不确定的情况下，排放配额的预购买数量的相关影响因素。研究结果表明，与确定的出行需求情景下消费者的配额购买决策相比，不确定的出行需求增大了消费者的配额订单数量，碳配额交易市场上的配额需求量增大，与传统库存决策问题的普遍结论——需求不确定性降低库存量——相反。原因是由于在消费者库存决策中，消费者心理上的“成本-收益”关联影响着感知到的支付成本，导致最终的购买数量偏离理论上的效用最大化决策。未知的出行需求，加上未知的碳排放效用，共同弱化了消费者内心的“效益-成本”路径效用，使得他们低估了购买配额的成本。相反，当市场配额的价格增高时，消费者内心的“成本-效益”路径效用被弱化了，导致消费者更关注支付时的感受，从而降低配额库存数量。 关键词：配额交易机制，新能源汽车，汽车换购策略，政府补贴，心理账户，配额库存决策。

 Based on the rapid advancement of urbanization in China in the past one or two decades and the development of the automotive industry, families and individuals are increasingly demanding and purchasing more and more private cars. At the same time, the increasing vehicle ownership and the increase in personal transportation travel demand have also caused China to become the world's leading emitter of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, a series of carbon emission-related energy-saving policies, such as carbon tax, Carbon emission trading between enterprises, etc., in line with the promotion of various new energy vehicles using the latest power technology, is changing a series of energy choices such as individual consumers' travel and car purchase. Among them, the personal carbon allowance trading system, as an allowance trading mechanism in the consumer side, has the same emission reduction efficiency to other current emission reduction policies. Meanwhile, it also has a more apparent economic incentive effect on individual consumer’s decision-making through its creative concept of “cap-and-trade”. Therefore, this paper attempts to study issues related to the personal carbon allowance trading system and consumer transportation choices, and discuss, classify, and complement the research in related fields and contribute to them. The specific research contents mainly include: (1)Based on the discrete choice model, analyze the consumer vehicle purchase and operation costs, and then establish an optimal selection model for consumers to select either new energy vehicles or conventional fuel-powered vehicles. Then, based on the theory of emission rights trading, we analyze the supply and demand curves of carbon dioxide emission allowance under the individual carbon allowance trading system, and derive the equilibrium carbon price under the market clearing conditions and explore the key influencing factors and its effects. Specifically, we study whether a carbon allowance price can or need to meet some conditions to motivate consumers to adopt green behaviors and consider buying new energy vehicles. Through the empirical data, we further analyze the impact factors of the government's cost-effective subsidies for energy-saving vehicles and provide a theoretical basis for the specific vehicle compensation quota design. The study found that the equilibrium carbon allowance price will become a key factor in the decision-making of consumers' new energy vehicle purchases. In the long run, by purchasing new energy vehicles to improve fuel efficiency, it can significantly reduce individual travel carbon emissions and save carbon emission costs. On the other hand, gasoline prices and interest rates significantly affect the carbon subsidy quota policy, but the impact is not the same. Gasoline prices have a negative impact on carbon subsidies, whereas interest rates have a positive impact on it. (2)According to the actual situation of China's new energy vehicle market purchase, considering the factors such as time and oil price fluctuations, the static economic model of the above-mentioned consumer purchase selection research is extended to the long-term and dynamic automobile redemption decision model. Then use the dynamic programming method to explore the impact of the above factors on consumers' willingness to redeem new energy vehicles and the corresponding government subsidy effect. It has important reference significance for the future pricing of energy-saving vehicles and the regulation of vehicle compensation. The study found that subsidies provided by the government are significantly promoting the new energy vehicle’s popularization. Similarly, the depreciation of idle vehicle, using and maintenance costs also significantly affect their replacement purchase time. When maintenance costs increase significantly year by year, consumers are more inclined to consider replacement purchase of new energy vehicles. In addition, consumer replacement decisions are sensitive to gasoline price fluctuations. In areas where oil prices are relatively stable, more consumers have reason to replace their conventional fuel-powered vehicles. The government should consider the corresponding policies for stabilizing oil prices to promote new energy vehicles and ultimately achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction. (3)Introducing consumer psychological consumption behavior, according to the mental accounting theory and the newsvendor model, establish a consumer carbon allowance inventory decision model under the individual carbon allowance trading system, abandon the real-time trading hypothesis in the literature, and analyze the relative influencing factors of the pre-purchased quantity of emission allowances in the case of uncertain future travel demand and carbon emission utility. The results of the study show that compared with the fixed purchase demand scenario, the uncertain travel demand increases the number of consumer allowance orders, and the demand in the carbon market increases. This is not in line with theconsensus on decision-making literaturethat states demand uncertainty reduces inventory. The reason is that in the consumer inventory decision, the consumer's psychological “cost-benefit” associations affect the perceived payment cost, resulting in the final purchase quantity deviating from the theoretical utility maximization decision. Unknown travel demand, coupled with the unknown carbon emissions utility, has weakened the “benefit-cost” path utility of consumers, inducing consumers to underestimate the cost of purchasing allowance. Conversely, when the price of allowance increases, the consumer's “cost-benefit” path utility is weakened, leading consumers to pay more attention to the feelings of payment, thereby reducing the amount of allowance inventory. Key Words: Allowance trading system, new energy vehicles, vehiclereplacement purchase strategies, government subsidies, mental accounting theory, allowance inventory decisions.