本文基于金融市场的资金资源配置功能，将金融市场供给侧体系按照“二分法”分为以银行体系为主的间接金融市场和以资本市场为主的直接金融市场；然后进一步将直接金融市场再进一步细分为股票市场与债券市场等，通过机理论证、数据分析与实证检验等方法研究了不同金融市场供给侧体系及细分的金融结构对产业升级的具体影响。同时，本文对于产业升级的评判从传统产业升级和新兴产业两个方面的三个维度(优化、升级、高技术密集度)加以分解并设定相应的比例指标，即新兴高技术产业成长指标与传统产业结构升级指标。本文假定，金融供给体系中的银行、股票和债券三个金融业的发展与这两类产业升级之间都应该具有一定的相关性。新兴高技术产业需要资本市场的支持，传统产业结构提升需要银行体系和资本市场等金融体系的共同支持。 金融市场的主要功能之一是优化资金资源配置，面在产业层面上获得的资金资源配置对产业的发展起到至关重要的作用。中国金融供给体系长期以来以银行信贷市场为主，产业发展在改革开放以来经历了阶段性变化后到了迫切需要产业升级的阶段。由股票、债券以及股权投资等构成的资本市场体系出现后发展较快，对高技术新兴产业发展和产业结构的提升都有一定的作用。本文协整分析得出的结果表明：在排除其他变量影响和三个金融结构变量互相独立的情况下，无论是以高技术产业为导向还是以产业结构依次升级为导向，更多是应该受到股票市场而非银行体系的影响，资本市场为主导的金融供给体系应该是影响产业升级的关键因素。虽然变量之间双向的因果关系并不明显，但产业优化、产业初级和后期升级是银行和股票市场总和(或分别)的单向格兰杰原因。这一定程度上说明了中国改革开放以来银行信贷市场和股票市场与产业升级之间互相促进的关系。 基于柯布道格拉斯模型建立了回归方程，实证分析了在增加全社会固定资产投资、人力资本和研发投入等变量后的产业升级与金融结构之间的内在关系。分析结果表明，新兴高技术产业与证券市场之间的相关性不强，但与固定资产投入特别是研发投入的相关性比较显著。当进一步将证券市场拆分为股票市场和债券市场进行分析时，发现新兴高技术指标与债券之间的相关性有一定的显著性；产业结构优化升级指标与金融结构的不同组合之间具有显著的相关性。分析结果表明，金融供给侧(尤其是资本市场)对产业升级(尤其是新兴高技术产业发展)促进作用明显不足。本文通过chow-test检验发现，2003年是回归分析的时间转折点，多条回归线在此时间点上发生转折。这为中国产业升级分析提供了崭新的时间节点。 第三产业发展是产业升级的重要指标。本文采用柯布道格拉斯模型的实证分析结果表明，第三产业中的交通运输仓储业发展与银行信贷、证券市场之间都存在一定的正向相关性；批发零售业发展与银行信贷之间存在正向相关性、与证券市场的相关性比较显著，但它们之间的正相关关系在2003年的时间节点上逆转为负相关关系；餐饮和住宿业发展与证券市场之间的相关性最为显著；房地产业与银行信贷、证券市场和固定资产投资之间都存在着较为显著的正向关系，而且没有随着时间发生逆转。 但是，交通运输仓储业与银行信贷和股票市场都有一定程度的正相关关系，与债券市场在一定程度上存在负相关关系；批发零售业发展与银行信贷、股票市场和债券市场之间都存在一定程度的正相关关系，但在2003年后，批发零售业发展与银行信贷之间的正相关关系继续存在，而与股票市场和债券市场之间的正相关关系逆转为的负相关关系；餐饮和住宿业的发展与银行信贷、股票市场和债券市场之间在有一定程度上都存在正相关关系；房地产业发展与银行信贷、股票市场和债券市场之间也都存在一定程度的正相关。 本文对上述回归分析结果进行了Grmger因果检验，较为完整地说明了金融结构指标对产业升级过程中的各个结构性指标的具体影响作用。这些因果关系反映了变量之间的变化触发效应，但没有因果关系并不意味着这些变量之间不存在相关关系和协整关系。因而，中国银行信贷资源虽然在产业增长过程中带动了经济总量不断增长，但并未真正配置到高效率的产业或部门，无法刺激新兴产业或实体经济升级，包括完善资本市场在内的金融资本供给侧结构性因素上升为一个重要的动力源。 为此，中国必须大力发展多层次的资本市场，加快适应新产业不断涌现所需的资金支持体系，尤其是要建立各个层次的股权市场，构建新旧产业更替的收购接管机制，实现产业不断升级。把金融体系区分为银行主导型体系和市场主导型体系是建立分析模型、实证分析这两个不同金融体系在促进产业增长和以高技术新兴产业发展为指标的产业升级中的作用的前提。随后的案例分析表明，美国的金融供给体系具有资本市场主导的市场型金融结构特点，在产业升级中都发挥了作用，其股票市场、公司债市场、风险投资等场外股权市场在其高新技术产业发展中的作用尤为明显。但是，日本金融供给体系则由银行主导，在新兴产业培育和发展中的作用相对较小。这一研究结果对我国金融供给侧结构性改革具有重要启示。 鉴此，中国产业升级需要资本市场(市场主导型供给体系)和银行体系(银行主导型供给体系)共同发力，才能形成经济发展和产业升级的“双重引力中心”。 关键词。金融供给侧、金融体系、产业升级、传统产业、新兴产业

 One of the main functions of the financial market is to optimize the allocation of capital resources, and the resource allocation obtained at the industrial level plays a crucial role in the development of the industry. Based on the function of capital resources allocation in financial markets, this paper divides the financial market supply system into two categories: the indirect financial market with the banking system as the mainstay and the direct financial market with the capital market as the dichotomy. Then, the direct financial market Then it is further subdivided into financial markets such as stock market and bond market, and fully studies the specific impact of different financial market supply systems and subdivided financial structures on industrial upgrading by means of mechanistic evidence, data analysis and empirical tests. At the same time, the paper reviews the evaluation of industrial upgrading from the three dimensions (optimization, upgrading and high technology intensity) of traditional industry upgrading and emerging industry establishment, and setting corresponding proportion indicators, that is, emerging high technology Small business growth and upgrading of traditional industrial structure. In this regard, the three market structures in the financial system have some consistency with these two types of industrial upgrading. Emerging industries need the support of capital markets, while the penetration of new technologies into traditional industries also requires the support of financial systems such as banking systems and capital markets. China's financial supply-side system has long been dominated by the bank credit market. Industrial development has undergone a periodical change after the reform and opening up and has reached an urgent stage of industrial upgrading. Since the advent of a capital market system featuring stocks, bonds and equity investment, the capital market system has developed rapidly and has played a certain role in the development of high-tech emerging industries and upgrading of industrial structure. Under the premise of dichotomy, the results obtained through the cointegration analysis method show that: excluding the influence of other variables and the independence of the three financial structure variables, both high-tech industries and industrial structures are upgraded to Guidance, more should be subject to the stock market rather than the banking system, the capital market-led financial supply system should be the key factor affecting the industrial upgrading. Although the two-way causal relationship between variables is not obvious, industrial optimization, primary and later industrial upgrading are the Granger reasons for the one-way sum (or respectively) of the banks and the stock market. This shows to some extent the direction of China's mutual promotion between the banking system, the stock market and industrial upgrading. Based on the Cobb Douglas model, a total of 16 regression equations have been established. These 16 equations reflect the intrinsic relationship between the index of industrial upgrading and the index of financial structure after increasing the variables of fixed asset investment, human capital and R & D investment in the whole society mechanism. When it comes to emerging high-tech industries, the correlation with the index of financial structure found during the return of the high-tech industries is not very strong. On the contrary, it has strong correlation with the input of fixed assets and the investment in research and development. When the stock market is further split into the stock market and the bond market for analysis, it is found that the high-tech indexes and the total amount of the bonds have certain significance. In terms of the regression results, the indicators for optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure are also significantly different from those for the financial structure. The above results generally show that the role of the financial supply system (especially the capital market) in China's industrial upgrading (especially in emerging industries) is obviously insufficient and needs to be strengthened. This paper uses the chow-testde test method empirical, come to 2003 is the regression analysis Time tipping point and multiple regression lines are also turning point at this time point, which provides a new analysis node for the analysis of China's industrial upgrading in the time dimension. Also after building the model, we find that there is a certain positive significance in the sub-industries, transportation, warehousing, banking and securities markets in the tertiary industry, especially in the positive relationship with the labor force. Wholesale and retail trade and the existence of banks Positive significance, and the securities industry there is a certain significance, the turning point in 2003 near the negative from the positive shift; catering and lodging industry and the most significant correlation with the securities. Real estate and banking system, the stock market, investment in fixed assets there is a more significant positive relationship, and the regression relationship did not change over time. After the stock market is split into the stock market and the bond market, the transportation warehousing industry has a certain degree of positive regression relationship with the banking system and the stock market, forming a certain degree of negative regression relationship with the bond market. Wholesale and retail trade has a certain degree of positive regression relationship with banking, stock market and bond market. After the turning point in 2003, the wholesale and retail trade continued to have a positive regression relationship with the banking system and a certain degree with the stock market and bond market Negative regression. Catering and lodging have a certain degree of positive regression with the banking system, the stock market and the bond market. The real estate industry has a certain degree of positive regression with the banking system, the stock market and the bond market. Granger test is used to establish the index of industrial upgrading and financial structure after the model is established, trying to illustrate the specific impact of the current financial structure index on various structural indexes in the process of industrial upgrading (ie, these causal relations Reflects the effect of the change in trigger between variables does not mean that there is no co-integration relationship and regression relationship without causal relationship). Under the background of analyzing the industrial upgrading, the banking-oriented system and the market-oriented system are the conceptual frameworks of financial markets in which the financial supply system of the United States and Japan promote the industrial growth, especially the development of high-tech emerging industries. The financial system in the United States has played a catalytic role in both economic growth and industrial growth. The financial supply system, including the stock market, the corporate bond market and the over-the-counter equity markets such as venture capital investment, are especially evident in promoting the cultivation of high-tech industries. Atypical market-oriented financial structure of the market-oriented features. Japan's financial system, on the other hand, relies mainly on the bank-based financial structure dominated by the host banks and is not as effective at nurturing emerging industries. This provides an international reference for China's financial reform. Therefore, the industrial upgrading in China needs to be driven by the "dual gravity center" mode of financial supply side, which is a combination of capital market (market-oriented supply system) and banking system (bank-oriented supply system). Key Words: Financial supply side; Financial system; Industrial upgrading; Traditional industries; Emerging industries