当前位置: 首页>博士论文>资源详情
信息化促进我国产业能效提高研究
中文摘要

 “网络化”“智能化”趋势正在深刻地改变着能源生产和消费,近年来,国际上愈益关注信息化在提升能效方面的重要作用,我国信息化发展对提升产业能效的战略支撑也在逐步加强。但国内外以信息化促进产业能效提升的理论研究还相对薄弱。在经济新常态背景下,我国能源消费总量的增长虽然趋缓,但结构性供需矛盾较为突出,提升能源利用效率的重要性不可忽视。因此,研究信息化在产业能效提升中的作用既具有较强的理论价值,又可以服务于国家战略,解决现实的能源利用问题。 本文在梳理国内外相关研究成果的基础上,着力研究了三方面问题: 一是探究信息化影响产业能效的作用机理和路径。信息化作为“技术范式”构建的过程,也是对宏观经济体系进行整体性重构的过程。它对产业能效的影响既源于技术应用,又通过由技术进步向产业结构调整的作用衍生和转化从而扩大其影响效果。本文以信息技术范式理论为基础,结合生产要素理论、交易成本理论以及对能源回弹问题的相关论述,对信息技术以不同要素形式融入生产后产生的能效影响进行解析,归纳出以下三方面的作用机理:信息技术替代能源要素、信息化促进生产管理高效协同、信息化引发能源回弹。在此基础上,本文借助产业链理论和技术扩散理论,沿着优化能源结构、扩大能效影响、形成低能耗产业结构三个方向对信息化影响产业能效的实现路径进行了分析。 二是对信息化影响产业能效的作用机理和路径进行实证检验。根据信息技术范式理论,信息化从推动技术进步和促进产业结构调整两方面对产业能效产生影响。据此,本文以“能源强度”作为对产业能效进行衡量的指标,结合因素分解模型,从考察技术进步和产业结构调整两方面作用的角度构建了对信息化影响产业能效作用机理和路径进行检验的理论模型。在此基础上,本文利用一定年份的投入产出数据进行了实证检验,进一步支撑和印证了理论分析。此外,本文还借助社会网络分析方法对信息技术扩散路径的形成及其在结构上存在的问题进行了研究。上述实证分析结果显示:第一,信息化带来的技术进步对能源强度下降产生了重要作用,但信息化在降低主要耗能行业的能源强度方面仍存在很大作用空间;第二,尽管信息化显现了助推低能耗产业结构的趋势,但信息化带动的产业结构调整在降低产业能源强度中发挥的实际效果还比较有限;第三,基于产业链的信息技术扩散是信息化影响产业能效的主要路径。机械行业、其他服务业、交通运输业、建筑业都对信息技术通过产业链扩散发挥了重要的技术传导作用,表明已经形成数条技术扩散的产业链路径。但同时,信息传输、计算机服务和软件业在产业链技术扩散中作用不足,具体显现出来的装备自动化和智能化水平不高、智能化系统应用不足以及信息化对电网智能化的支撑不够等问题,也极为不利于发挥信息化提升能效的作用。 三是对信息化影响产业能效的综合效应进行定量测算。信息化影响产业能效是以产生技术进步作用为起点的,信息化的产业结构调整作用也是在其推动生产体系技术进步的过程中衍生出来的。基于技术进步存在要素偏向和中性之分,本文通过理论论证将信息化的技术进步和产业结构调整这两种作用与影响能源消费的替代效应和产生经济增长影响的产出效应衔接起来,构建了对信息化影响产业能效综合效应进行测算的理论模型。而后,本文借助投入产出分析法完成了对替代效应和产出效应计算方法的理论推导和计算,进而测算了综合效应。测算结果显示,自2007年以来,信息技术对能源产生了要素替代作用,由此带来的对产业能效提升的贡献为77.23%;但在2002-2012年间,信息化对全要素生产率的促进作用有限,容易产生能源回弹的问题。此外,本文还采用弹性分析方法从行业层面对信息化影响能效的效果进行了测算,结果显示:信息化促进能效提升的效果存在较大行业差异。其中,黑色金属、化学、建筑等行业的信息化节能效果相对较好,而交通运输、非金属、石油加工、有色金属、电力等行业的信息化发展在促进能效提升方面的效果还较为有限。 结合现状与问题,在理论分析、实证研究、定量测算的基础上,本文提出以下对策建议:通过提升装备智能化水平、推进能源管理系统建设,加强产业链技术传导及“软”“硬”技术的协同应用;以完善智能电网顶层设计为重点,加快实现能源结构优化;以“数字转型”为策略助推产业结构调整,减轻能源回弹问题。 本文的主要创新之处在于:第一,以信息技术范式理论为基础,分析提出了信息化影响产业能效的作用机理和路径;第二,采用社会网络分析法,从产业联系的网络结构角度对产业链路径形成和技术扩散情况进行了考察;第三,利用投入产出分析法,实现了对信息化影响产业能效综合效应的建模及具体测算。 关键词:信息化,产业能源利用效率,能源强度,投入产出分析

英文摘要

 The trends of “networking” and “intelligence” are profoundly changing energy production and consumption. Recently, more and more attention has been paid to the important role of informatization in improving energy efficiency. China’s informatization development is also gradually strengthening the strategic support for improving industrial energy efficiency. However, there are relatively few theoretical researches on promoting industrial energy utilization efficiency through informatization at home and abroad. Under the new normal of economy, although the growth of total energy consumption in China is relatively slow, the structural contradiction between supply and demand is relatively prominent, so the importance of improving energy utilization efficiency cannot be ignored. Therefore, the research on promoting industrial energy utilization efficiency by informatization has strong theoretical value and can serve the national strategy and solve the practical energy utilization problems. On the basis of summarizing literature review at home and abroad, this paper focuses on three issues: The first is to explore the mechanism and path of informatization affecting industrial energy efficiency. As a process of building the “technological paradigm”, informatization reconstructs the macroeconomic system as a whole. Its effect on industrial energy efficiency stems from technology applications, and is expanded through the derivation and transformation from technological progress to industrial restructuring. Based on the theory of information technology paradigm, combined with theories concerned with production factor, transaction cost and energy rebound, the energy efficiency effects of information technology integrated into production by different factors and in different forms are analyzed in this paper. Three mechanisms are summarized as the followings: the substitution of information technology elements for energy elements; informatization promoting the efficiency and collaboration of production; the rebound of energy caused by informatization. On this basis, with the help of industrial chain and technology diffusion theories, this paper analyzes the realization path of informatization affecting industrial energy efficiency in three directions: optimizing energy structure, expanding energy efficiency impact and forming low-energy consumption industrial structure. The second is to make empirical tests on the mechanism and path of informatization affecting industrial energy efficiency. According to the paradigm theory of information technology, informatization has an effect on industrial energy efficiency from two aspects, that is, pushing forward technological progress and promoting industrial restructuring. By taking "Energy Intensity" as the indicator to measure industrial energy efficiency, combined with the factor decomposition model, a theoretical model is constructed in this paper to test the mechanism and path of informatization affecting industrial energy efficiency from the perspective of two aspects: technological progress and industrial restructuring. On this basis, empirical tests are made here based on input-output data of certain period of years, which further supports and confirms the theoretical analysis. In addition, with the help of social network analysis method, this paper investigates the formation of information technology diffusion path and its structural problems. The empirical analysis results show that: Firstly, the technological progress of informatization has played an important role in reducing energy intensity, however, there is still much room for informatization to reduce the energy intensity of major energy-consuming industries; Secondly, although informatization manifests the trend of promoting low-energy consumption industrial structure, the actual effect of industrial restructuring driven by informatization in reducing industrial energy intensity is still relatively limited. Thirdly, the diffusion of information technology based on industrial chain is the main path of informatization affecting industrial energy efficiency. Machinery industry, miscellaneous services industry, transport industry and construction industry have all played an important role of technology transmission on the diffusion of information technology through the industrial chain, which indicates that several industrial chains have been formed for technology diffusion. However, the role of information transmission, computer services and software industries is inadequate for the industrial chain technology diffusion and the details are shown as followings: the insufficient level of equipment automation and intellectualization, the limited application of intellectualized system and the insufficient support of informatization for the intellectualization of power grid are also very unfavorable to playing the role of informatization in improving energy efficiency. The third is to quantitatively measure the comprehensive effect of informatization on industrial energy efficiency. Informatization affecting industrial energy efficiency starts from the role of technological progress, while the role of industrial restructuring of informatization is derived from the informatization-driven technological progress of production system. Therefore, in this paper, based on theoretic argument, by dovetailing two roles, that is, informatization-driven technological progress and industrial restructuring, and two effects, that is, substitution effect that affects energy consumption and output effect that has an economic impact, a theoretical model is constructed to measure the comprehensive effect of informatization on industrial energy efficiency. Then, this paper completes the theoretical derivation and calculation of the methods of substitution effect and output effect by means of input-output analysis, and further calculates the comprehensive effect. The results show that information technology has played an important role in energy substitution since 2007, which contributes 77.23% to the improvement of industrial energy efficiency; however, in 2002-2012, informatization has a limited role in promoting total factor productivity, which is prone to the problem of energy rebound. In addition, this paper also uses the elastic analysis method to measure the effect of informatization on energy efficiency from the industry level. The results show that: there are great industrial differences in the effect of information technology to promote energy efficiency. Ferrous metal industry, chemistry industry and construction industry have relatively better effect in energy saving by informatization, while transport industry, non-metal industry, petroleum processing industry, non-ferrous metal industry and power industry have worse effect in energy efficiency by informatization development. Combined with current situation and problems, and based on theoretical analysis, empirical researches and quantitative calculation, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: strengthening the technology transmission of industrial chain and the collaborative application of "Soft" and "Hard" technologies from the perspective of enhancing the equipment intellectualization and promoting the construction of energy management system; accelerating the optimization of energy structure by improving the top-level design of smart grid; taking "Digital Transformation" strategy to promote industrial restructuring and alleviating the problem of energy rebound. The innovation of this paper lies in: firstly, based on the paradigm theory of information technology this paper puts forward the mechanism and path of informatization affecting industrial energy efficiency; secondly, social network analysis is adopted in this paper to investigate the formation of industrial chain path and technology diffusion from the perspective of network structure of industrial association; thirdly, by using of input-output analysis, this paper builds the modeling and calculating the comprehensive effect of informatization on industrial energy efficiency. KEY WORDS: Informatization, Energy Efficiency, Energy Intensity, I-O Analysis

作者相关
主题相关
看过该书的人还在看哪些书