探索规划实施成效的影响机制，寻求提升规划实施成效的路径是规划研究学者以及规划管理从业人员的重要角色使命。我国由计划经济向市场经济转型的过程中，土地利用主体的空间需求更加多元化，意味着给规划实施管理带来更大的挑战。而且，大量空间规划实践结果表明，随着规划实施过程中利益主体的多元化，规划对主体土地利用行为的引导和管控能力在很大程度上影响规划实施成效。因此，为了提升规划实施成效、揭示规划实施成效影响机制，规划实施评估的研究视角需从宏观转到微观，研究对象也需由单一主体转向多元主体。为此，由于研究视角和对象的改变，亟需探索一套基于多元主体的规划实施评估体系以及规划实施决策行为分析框架。 规划实施成效测度及其影响机制分析是规划实施评估研究的两个核心问题。本文以土地利用总体规划作为研究对象，从外部性的视角来辨析规划实施成效的内涵和构成；在此基础上构建了基于主体的规划实施成效测度体系，并以南宁市中心城区作为研究区，通过ArcGIS平台应用Python编程评估了基于主体的土地利用规划实施成效。此外，研究通过搭建基于主体决策行为的规划实施行为分析框架，应用Probit模型进一步探析规划实施过程中，区位特征、主体类型特征、项目属性特征以及邻近主体行为特征等因素对主体土地利用决策行为的影响。本文的主要研究结果与结论如下： (1)控制和减少土地利用的公共负外部性是空间规划的正当性和使命所在。为此，规划对公共外部性的管控效果可以作为空间规划实施成效的一个衡量标准。从这个角度出发，空间规划实施成效在一定程度上是指在规划引导和管控下，单个主体的土地利用对公共外部性的影响方向以及程度。空间规划实施成效由内在效度和外在效度构成。内在效度是空间规划一致性评价的核心内容，测度结果有助于评判规划实施是否减少了土地利用的公共负外部性，促进了公共正外部性。外在效度是空间规划实施绩效的一种表现形式，反映的是在空间规划作用下，土地利用外部性对整体社会福利的影响。 (2)本文以《南宁市土地利用总体规划(2006-2020年)》中心城区范围内的土地利用(特指农地非农化过程)作为研究对象，以单个主体的土地利用作为评价单元，通过辨析土地利用与规划管控分区主导用途之间的符合程度与兼容程度，以及土地利用与周边土地利用的兼容程度，并以此构建基于单个主体的规划实施成效测度体系。实证结果显示，基于主体的土地利用总体规划实施效度均值和中位数均超过高效度规划实施的基准值。结果表明，规划实施期间，南宁市土地利用总体规划对中心城区个体的规划实施总体上起到了引导和管制的作用。 (3)异质性和有限理性是规划实施主体的基本特征，因而，基于主体层面探讨规划实施成效影响机制时，需要放松均质化主体的假设。而且，规划实施环境是由人类社会环境、经济运行环境和土地自然生态环境构成的复杂环境系统。规划实施结果是多元主体在与空间规划系统、以及其他规划实施主体交互后，做出的土地利用决策行为的集合。为此，本文构建了基于区位特征、主体特征、项目特征以及邻近主体行为特征等因素共同作用下的主体规划实施决策行为分析框架。 (4)主体规划实施行为影响机制的实证研究结果表明，区位特征、主体类型特征以及项目特征都显著影响了主体规划实施决策行为。规划实施主体是有限理性行为主体，其规划实施偏好并非稳定不变，而且，项目特征是一个强烈的规划实施干预信号，会对规划实施主体的行为产生影响。研究发现，主体类型特征与项目特征之间存在交互作用，如果土地利用主体类型属于土地开发经营主体，同时项目特征属于重点项目时，高效度规划实施行为发生的概率将会显著降低。 (5)规划实施行为空间分异与传递的实证研究结果还发现，各类主体的规划实施行为在空间上的分布和集聚特征也存在差异性，表现为明显的空间分异特征。而且，规划实施过程中，规划实施行为具有时间传递性，前一个时间节点发生的土地利用行为将会影响后一个时间节点其他主体的土地利用决策行为。此外，规划实施行为还具有空间传递性，邻近区域范围内的土地利用，将显著影响主体的土地利用决策行为。 关键词：规划实施成效；多元主体；决策行为；主体偏好；影响机理

 It is one of the important missions for planning managers and relevant scholars to explore the influencing mechanism and improvement path of the implementation effectiveness of planning. In the process of the transition from planned economy to market economy, the spatial demand of land use subject in China is becoming more and more diversified, which brings more challenges to the planning and management issues. Moreover, a large number of spatial planning practice results show that, with the diversification of stakeholders in the process of planning implementation, the effectiveness of planning implementation depends on guidance and control ability of the planning to subject's land use decisions to a large extent. Therefore, in order to improve the effectiveness of planning implementation and reveal the influencing mechanism of planning implementation effectiveness, the research perspective of planning implementation evaluation should be changed from macro to micro, and the research object should also be changed from single subject to multiple subjects. Due to the change of research perspective and object, it is necessary to explore a new planning implementation evaluation system based on multiple subjects and an analysis framework for the decision-making behavior of planning implementation. The measurement of planning implementation effectiveness and its influencing mechanism are two core issues in the study of planning implementation evaluation. This dissertation took the general land use planning as the research object, and analyzed the connotation and composition of planning implementation effectiveness from the perspective of externality. Based on this, a subject-based measurement system of planning implementation effectiveness was constructed. Taking the central urban area of nanning city as the research area, the implementation effectiveness of subject-based land use planning was evaluated by Python programming based on ArcGIS platform. In addition, by building an analysis framework of planning implementation behavior based on the decision-making behavior of the subject, this dissertation further explored the influencing mechanism of location characteristics, subject type characteristics, project attribute characteristics and behavior characteristics of neighboring subjects on the decision-making behavior of land use in the process of planning implementation.. The main research results and conclusions of this dissertation are as follows: (1)Controlling and reducing the negative public externalities of land use is the legitimacy and mission of spatial planning. Thus, the control effect of public negative externalities can be used as a measure of the implementation effectiveness of spatial planning. From this perspective, the implementation effectiveness of spatial planning reflects, to some extent, the influencing direction and extent of land use behavior of each subject on public externalities under the guidance and control of planning. The implementation effectiveness of spatial planning consists of internal validity and external validity. Among them, the internal validity is the core of spatial planning consistency evaluation, and the measurement result is helpful to judge whether the planning implementation reduces the negative public externality and promotes the positive public externality. External validity is a manifestation of the implementation performance of spatial planning, which reflects the impact of land use externalities on the overall social welfare under the implementation of spatial planning. (2)Based on the "Nanning General Land Use Planning (2006-2020)", this dissertation took land uses in the city center (especially non-agriculturalization process of farmland) as the research object, and the land use behaviour of each subject was taken as the evaluation unit. Based on the analysis of the consistency and compatibility between land use and the dominant use of planning control zone, and the compatibility between land use and surrounding land uses, a subject-based measurement system for planning implementation effectiveness was constructed. The empirical results showed that both the mean and median of the implementation validity of the subject-based general land use planning exceed the baseline. This means during the implementation of the Nanning General Land Use Planning, the planning did play its guiding and controlling role in the decision-making behavior of subjects in the central urban areas. (3)Heterogeneity and bounded rationality are two basic characteristics for the subject of planning implementation. Based on this, it is necessary to relax the hypothesis of homogeneous subjects when discussing the influencing mechanism of planning implementation at the subject level. Moreover, the planning implementation environment is a complex environmental system composed of social environment, economic environment and natural ecological environment of land. The result of planning implementation is a set of land use decision-making behaviors made by multiple subjects after interacting with the spatial planning system and other planning implementation subjects. Therefore, this dissertation constructed an analysis framework of the decision-making behavior of the subject planning implementation through combining location characteristics, subject characteristics, project characteristics and behavior characteristics of neighboring subjects. (4)The empirical study results showed that location characteristics, subject characteristics and project characteristics all significantly affect the subject decisionmaking behavior of planning implementation. The subject of planning implementation is bounded rational, and their planning implementation preference is not stable and invariable. Moreover, the project characteristic is a strong intervention signal of planning implementation, which will affect the behavior of the subject during the planning implementation. It is found that there was an interaction effect between subject characteristics and project characteristics. If the land use subject type is the "land development subject" and the project characteristic is the "key project", the probability of high validity of planning implementation would be significantly reduced. (5)In addition, the empirical study also found that the spatial distribution and agglomeration characteristics of the planning implementation behaviors of diverse subjects were also different, which showed obvious spatial differentiation patterns. Moreover, in the process of planning implementation, there was a time transitivity phenomenon, and the current land use decision-making behavior will influence the decision-making behavior in the next time point. In addition, the planning implementation behavior also has a spatial transitivity phenomenon, and the adjacent land use decision-making behaviors will significantly affect the land use decisionmaking behavior of the target subject. Keywords: Planning implementation effectiveness; Multiple subjects; Decisionmaking behavior; Individual preferences; Influencing mechanism.