储蓄是影响投资的重要因素，是经济持续高速发展的重要保障。受到传统文化、生活习惯等的影响，我国居民储蓄率一直处于较高的水平。但统计数据显示，从2008年开始，我国国民储蓄率进入了持续下降区间，储蓄率水平从2008年52％下降到2017年45.8％，且根据IMF的研究预测，我国居民储蓄率在未来几年仍将保持持续下降趋势。同时我国居民的储蓄率拐点也在2010年出现，从2010年42.1％下降到2017年36.4％。 另一方面，2012年起，我国经济已脱离了10％以上的增速区间，进入了“经济新常态”，经济增长由高速增长转向高质量增长。我国当前处在经济金融的调整阶段，经济增速有所减缓。增速下降导致许多粗放式高速增长阶段所积累的矛盾和风险逐步显现。同时，我国面临着复杂多变的国际形势挑战，中美贸易摩擦悬而未决，英国脱欧持续拉锯，外部环境不确定性较大。内部改革和外部挑战共存，使我国经济面临较大的风险。2017年十九大报告中将“防范化解重大风险”作为三大攻坚战中的首要任务，充分表明我国目前面临较为严峻的系统性金融风险问题。 在此背景下，居民储蓄率下降和系统性金融风险之间是否显著相关，居民储蓄率长期持续下降这一现象反映了哪些经济变量的变化，又会如何影响系统性金融风险成为值得深入研究的问题。本文就居民储蓄率长期持续下降和系统性金融风险之间的关系及其背后的逻辑展开了研究，从理论和实际出发，通过理论研究与实证研究证明了居民储蓄率下降与系统性金融风险显著相关，并从逻辑上梳理了这一相关性背后的逻辑。在此基础上，进一步就居民储蓄储蓄率下降这一现象背后可能带来系统性金融风险的因素进行了深入考察。本文的研究在一定程度上弥补了当前学者对居民储蓄率下降与系统性金融风险的关系研究的不足，具有一定的理论意义和实际意义。 本文共分为8章。 第1章是引言部分，主要介绍了本文的研究背景、研究意义、相关概念和研究思路等。 第2章是文献综述，总结了当前对居民储蓄率和系统性金融风险的研究成果，重点介绍了对两者之间关系的相关研究。对文献的梳理表明，当前对居民储蓄率的研究侧重于研究影响居民储蓄率变动的因素；对系统性金融风险的研究侧重于造成系统性金融风险的因素、对系统性金融风险的刻画、如何避免系统性金融风险等方面。少有文献对居民储蓄率变动和系统性金融风险之间的关系进行研究。这充分表明本文的研究具有充足的理论意义。 第3章首先介绍了我国居民储蓄率现状，并对我国居民储蓄率持续下降的原因进行了简单的分析；随后构建了一个系统性金融风险测算方法，将一国的系统性金融风险进行量化，并进行了有效性检验。本章的研究表明，我国居民储蓄率已经处于下行区间，并在未来会继续保持下行趋势。同时有效性检验表明，本章所构建的系统性金融风险测算方法是有效的。 第4章是本文的基础性章节，从整体上分析我国居民储蓄率下降背后可能带来系统性金融风险的因素。首先从逻辑上阐述了居民储蓄率下降与系统性金融风险之间相关关系的逻辑；随后使用跨国面板模型对两者之间的关系进行了实证研究，并对研究结论进行了稳健性检验。研究结果表明，居民储蓄率长期持续下降与系统性金融风险上升之间存在显著地相关性。 第5章从居民储蓄与社会融资规模的关系出发，探讨了居民储蓄率长期持续下降伴随着社会融资规模抑制的现象，并进一步地影响我国金融体系的稳定。本章首先对社会融资规模的组成进行了分析，结果表明居民储蓄是我国社会融资的重要组成部分，居民储蓄率下降意味着社会融资规模受到抑制；随后从理论上考察了社会融资规模抑制和系统性金融风险之间的关系；最后对社会融资规模与系统性金融风险之间的关系进行了实证检验。本章研究结果表明，居民储蓄率长期持续下降伴随着社会融资规模抑制，进而增加了系统性金融风险。 第6章从居民储蓄与居民杠杆的关系出发，探讨了居民投资对居民消费的挤出效应，居民投资带来的居民杠杆率提高以及由此导致的系统性金融风险。本章首先分析了居民投资对居民消费的挤出效应；随后探讨了居民杠杆率上升与系统性金融风险之间的关系，理论研究与实证研究的结果表明居民杠杆率与系统性金融风险之间存在显著的正向相关；最后考察了居民投资与资产价格泡沫互相促进螺旋上升而引起的系统性金融风险，结果表明居民投资增加导致资产价格泡沫，同时较高的资产价格会吸引居民进一步提升杠杆率，由此相互促进，螺旋交替上升，带来较高的系统性金融风险。本章研究结果表明，我国居民储蓄下降所释放出的流动性更多地流向了房地产，并出现了居民杠杆率和资产价格螺旋交替上升的现象，产生了大量的系统性金融风险。 第7章从居民储蓄与金融脆弱性之间的关系入手，使用银行挤兑模型深入研究了居民储蓄率下降可能带来的金融脆弱性提升。研究结果表明，当银行挤兑均衡面临流动性需求上升的冲击时，系统出现流动性短缺，会导致多家银行面临挤兑，并最终引发系统性银行危机。该模型证明了，居民储蓄率下降会对金融系统带来冲击，提高金融系统的脆弱性，导致金融系统所面临的系统性金融风险提升。 第8章总结了本文的主要研究结论，并对我国经济新常态背景下居民储蓄率长期持续下降的影响进行了简要分析。最后根据本文的研究结论提出了几点应对居民储蓄率长期持续下降的政策建议，并指出了本文的研究不足和未来研究方向。 本文研究表明，我国居民储蓄率长期下降这一现象伴随着社会融资抑制、居民杠杆率上升和金融脆弱性提高的现象，导致我国面临较高的系统性风险。在我国经济新常态下，相对较低的经济增长速度和近期经济下行压力会导致我国面临较高的系统性金融风险。在此背景下，格外需要注意应对居民储蓄率下降所带来的放大效应，未雨绸缪，提前部署，严守不发生系统性风险的底线。 关键词：居民储蓄率 系统性金融风险 相关关系

 Savings is an important factor affecting investment and an important guarantee for sustained and rapid economic development. Influenced by traditional culture and living habits, the national savings rate of Chinese residents has been at a high level. However, National Bureau of Statistics show that the national savings rate has entered a continuous decline range since 2008. The level of savings rate has dropped from 52% in 2008 to 45.8% in 2017. According to IMF research, the savings rate of Chinese residents will continue to decline in the next few years. The turning point of savings tendency of Chinese residents appeared in 2010, from 42.1% in 2010 to 36.4% in 2017. On the other hand, China has left the economic growth range of 10% per year and a "new normal economy" appeared since 2012. Economic growth has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth. China’s economic growth has slowed down within the adjustment stage of the economic and financial cycle currently. At the same time, China is facing the complex and changeable challenges of the international situation, China′s trade frictions with the US and UK′s divorce from the Europe are in suspense, and the external environment is uncertain. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China regards "preventing and resolving major risks" as the first task in the three key battles, which fully shows that our country is facing more severe systemic financial risk problems. Under this background, whether there is a significant correlation between the decline of resident savings rate and systemic financial risks, which economic variables are reflected in the long-term decline of resident savings rate, and how to affect systemic financial risk have become some issues worthy of in-depth study. This paper makes a thorough study on the systemic financial risks brought about by the long-term and continuous decline of resident savings rate and combs the logic of correlation. Starting from theory and practice, theoretical and empirical studies prove that the decline of resident savings rate has a significant impact on systemic financial risks, combs the relationship between the resident savings rate and systemic financial risks logically. On this basis, the factors of the impact of changes in resident savings rate on systemic financial risks arc discussed in depth. To a certain extent, this study makes up for the gap and deficiency of current existing literature on the decline of resident savings rate and systemic financial risks, which has certain theoretical and practical significance. This study is divided into eight chapters. Chapter 1 is the introduction, which mainly introduces the research background, research significance, related concepts and research ideas of this paper. Chapter 2 is the literature review, which summarizes the current research results on resident savings rate and systemic financial risks and focuses on the relationship between them. The literature review shows that the current research on resident savings rate focuses on the factors affecting the change of resident savings rate; the research on systemic financial risks focuses on the factors causing systemic financial risks, the characterization of systemic financial risks, and how to avoid systemic financial risks. Few literatures have studied the relationship between the change of resident savings rate and systemic financial risk, which indicates that the study of this paper is of sufficient theoretical significance. Chapter 3 introduces the current situation of resident savings rate, and makes a simple analysis of the reasons for the continuous decline of China′s resident savings rate; then constructs a systematic financial risks measurement method, quantifies a country's systemic financial risks, and tests its effectiveness. The research shows that the savings rate of China′s residents has been in the downward range and will continue to keep the downward trend in the future. At the same time, the validity test shows that the systematic financial risks measurement method constructed is effective in this chapter. Chapter 4 is the basic chapter of this paper. It analyses the relationship between the resident savings rate and systemic financial risks as a whole. Firstly, it logically expounds that the decline of resident savings rate will have an impact on systemic financial risks. Then, it makes an empirical study on the relationship between the resident savings rate and systemic financial risks using the cross-country panel data and robustness tests. The results show that the long-term and continuous decline of resident savings rate can significantly affect systemic financial risks. Chapter 5 starts from the relationship between resident savings and social financing, and explores the phenomenon that the long-term and continuous decline of resident savings rate accompanied by the restraint of financial capital scale, further affects the stability of China′s financial system and the composition of social financing is analyzed. The results show that resident savings is an important part of China′s social financing, and the decline of resident savings rate restrains the scale of social financing. Then, the relationship between social financing restraint and systemic financial risks is investigated theoretically. Finally, an empirical test is made on the relationship between social financing and systemic financial risks. The results of this chapter show that the long-term and continuous decline of resident savings rate accompanied by the restraint of social financing, which increases systemic financial risk. Chapter 6 starts from the relationship between resident savings and resident leverage, and explores the systemic financial risks caused by the long-term decline of resident savings rate which accompanied by the rise of resident leverage rate. This chapter first analyses the “squeeze-out” effect of resident investment on resident consumption and the relationship between the rise of resident savings and resident leverage rate and the systemic financial risks caused by the spiraling asset price bubble are discussed. Theoretical and empirical studies show that there is a significant positive correlation between resident leverage rate and systemic financial risk. The increase of asset price bubbles are caused by the investment of residents, and higher asset prices can attract residents to further increase their leverage rate and alternately increasing the spiral, resulting in higher systemic financial risks. The results of this chapter indicate that the liquidity released by the decline of resident savings flows more to real estate, and the phenomenon of the spiral increase of resident leverage and asset prices has emerged, which brings to a large number of systematic financial risks. From the relationship between resident savings and financial vulnerability, Chapter 7 constructs a model to research the financial vulnerability enhancement caused by the decline of resident savings rate. The results show that when the balance of bank-runs is confronted with the shocks of rising liquidity demand, the liquidity shortage will lead to a number of banks facing runs and eventually lead to a systemic banking crisis. The model proves that the decline of resident savings rate will impact the financial system, increase the vulnerability of the financial system, and lead to the increase of systemic financial risks faced by the financial system. Chapter 8 summarizes the main conclusions of this paper, makes a brief analysis of the impact of the long-term and sustained decline of resident savings rate and puts forward some policy recommendations to cope with the long-term and continuous decline of resident savings rate under the background of the new normal economy. At the same time, it points out the shortcomings of this study and future research directions. This study shows that the long-term decline of the resident savings rate is accompanied by the suppression of social financing, the rise of resident leverage rate and the increase of financial vulnerability, which leads to a higher systemic risk in China. Under the new normal economic situation, relatively low economic growth rate and recent downward economic pressure will lead to higher systemic financial risks in China. In this context, we need to pay special attention to the amplification effect brought about by the decline of resident savings rate, take precautions, deploy in advance, and strictly adhere to the bottom line of no systemic risks. Keywords: Resident savings rate; Systematic financial risks; Correlation relation