从源头出发，通过空间规划管控和引导各类用地高效配置，促进土地节约集约利用(简称节地)，对缓解我国土地供需矛盾具有重要作用。目前我国的空间规划制度正处于改革调整期。发展空间规划的节地效果测度方法、掌握规划节地的成效与不足，可以为修改完善规划、制定相关改进措施提供依据，推进规划节地工作的开展，因此具有重要的研究意义。 然而，目前关于空间规划节地效果的研究仍相对滞后。本文选取土地利用总体规划作为空间规划的典型代表，针对“测度内容”、“测度标准”和“测度方法”这三个关键问题开展研究，构建了空间规划节地效果测度分析框架，并选择浙江省海宁市土地利用总体规划进行了实例分析，主要研究成果如下： (1)从“管控建设用地扩张”、“引导用地结构优化”和“引导空间布局优化”三个方面梳理了空间规划的节地路径及机制，并由此设置了相应的空间规划节地效果表征指标，明确了空间规划节地效果的测度内容。 (2)结合传统的“一致性”和“绩效”测度标准，提出以“规划节地目标实现程度”和“规划促进节地实施成效”两个标准来测度空间规划的节地效果。前者能迅速、直观地反映空间规划节地目标的实现程度；后者能够弥补前者仅关注最终结果而忽略了规划实施过程的不足，且引入反事实分析后，改进了以回溯决策过程为核心的绩效测度标准可操作性欠佳的不足。 (3)发展了“规划节地目标实现程度”和“规划促进节地实施成效”的测度方法，主要特色有：在定量测度规划节地目标实现程度的基础上，辅以规划目标合理性分析，能有效识别因规划目标本身不合理而对定量测度结果造成的偏误；按照反事实分析的思路，借用Logistic回归、地理探测器、CLUE-S模型等方法，通过比较有规划和无规划情景条件下的模拟结果差异，识别规划促进节地的实施成效。 (4)海宁市规划设定的2020年城乡建设用地规模控制指标偏小、大规模复垦农村居民点用地的目标过于激进，规划节地目标实现程度较低；但规划促进节地的实施成效依然显著，有效抑制了城乡建设用地的快速扩张，优化了城乡建设用地结构，促进了城镇工矿用地、农村居民点用地和耕地的合理集聚。 (5)根据当前我国空间规划在节地实践中存在的主要问题及制约因素，结合本次实例分析结果，从“完善空间规划管理制度”、“提高空间规划编制质量”和“重视规划实施过程管理”三个方面，提出了更好地发挥空间规划节地效果的具体对策建议。 关键词：空间规划；土地利用规划；节约集约用地；测度；一致性；绩效；反事实分析

 To relieve the contradiction between land supply and demand, it is important to promote the economical and intensive land use by tackling the problem from its source, and by planning, regulating, and guiding the efficient allocation of various types of land. Spatial planning system is undergoing reformation in China. The development of the method of measuring the effect of spatial planning on economical and intensive land use (land saving for short) is of great significance to figure out the effectiveness and deficiency of the planning, lay the basis for its modification and improvement, and formulate the land saving policy. However, research on the land saving effect of spatial planning is still lagging behind. The content, criteria and technique of measurement are three critical issues troubling relevant researches. Therefore, taking the general land use plan of China as a typical example, this paper conducts research on the above three key issues, constructs the analysis framework of measuring the land-saving effect of spatial planning, and uses the Haining general land use plan for case analysis. The main results are as follows: (1)This paper analyzes the land saving methods and mechanisms of spatial planning from three perspectives: “controlling the expansion of construction land”, “guiding the optimization of land use structure”, and “guiding the optimization of spatial layout”, which enriches the theoretical basis that spatial planning can influence the land saving practice. Besides, this paper points out the characteristic index of the land saving effect of spatial planning, and the index conforms to the current idea of land saving featuring “controlling the land use amount, making full use of the current land, ensuring the flow, adjusting the structure and optimizing the layout”. (2)Taking the traditional measure criteria of “conformance” and “performance” into consideration, this paper puts forward two criteria to measure the land-saving effect of spatial planning: “to which extent the land saving goal of the planning is achieved” and “how effective the planning is in promoting the land saving practice”. The former can quickly and intuitively show to which extent the goal is achieved, but it only focuses on the results and ignores the process of implementing the planning. The latter, however, can make up for this deficiency. Besides, by using the counterfactual analysis, the latter also overcomes the deficiency of the performance measurement criteria with the backtracking of decision-making process as its core for the lack of operability. (3)This paper develops the measurement methods of “to which extent the land saving goal of the planning is achieved” and “how effective the planning is in promoting the land saving practice”, and the main characteristics are as follows: on the one hand, based on the quantitative measure of to which extent the land saving goal of the planning is achieved, errors in quantitative measure results caused by the unreasonable goal can be identified with the help of the rationality analysis of the goal; on the other hand, from the perspective of counterfactual analysis, the land saving effect of the planning can be identified by using logistic regression, geographical detector, CLUE-S model and other methods, and by comparing the different results between land saving practice with a planning and with no planning. (4)According to the results of the case analysis, the control index of the scale for urban and rural construction land in 2020 set by Haining City is too small, and the goal of large-scale reclamation of rural residential land is too radical. Therefore, the land saving goal of the planning is hard to achieve. However, the planning is still effective in promoting land saving practice. It controls the rapid expansion and optimizes the structure of urban and rural construction land. Besides, it also promotes the reasonable agglomeration of urban industrial and mining land, and rural residential and cultivated land. (5)Considering the main problems and constraints in the land saving practice of the current spatial planning in China and the results of the case analysis, this paper puts forward concrete solutions and suggestions to better exert the effect of spatial planning on land saving from the aspects of “improving the management system of spatial planning”, “improving the quality of spatial planning”, and “attaching importance to the process management of implementing the planning”. Keywords: Spatial planning; Land use planning; Economical and intensive land use; Measuring; Conformance; Performance; Counterfactual analysis