自2010年以来，缅甸国内发生了重大变革，军政府退位，民选政府上台，并开启了大刀阔斧的民主改革措施。美国作为一支重要的外部力量，以各种方式对缅甸的政治转型施加影响。缅甸是近年来美国推动的威权国家向民主国家转型的一个较为成功的案例。本文主要回答的问题是：美国为何以及如何推动缅甸的民主转型？美国因素在缅甸政治转型中发挥了怎样的作用？研究上述问题对于丰富政治转型理论和更深入地理解美国的“民主输出”战略有重要意义，对于改善中国周边外交的决策和实践也有很强的现实价值。 美缅自1948年建交以来，两国关系随着缅甸国内形势的变化和美国外交战略的调整发生了两次大的转变。冷战时期，美国为防止缅甸倒向共产主义，给予缅甸经济和军事援助。1988年，缅甸爆发了大规模的民主运动，危机之下苏貌将军率领的军队发动军事政变，开启了新军人集团执政时期。此后美缅关系急剧恶化，外交关系降级，美国开始对缅甸实行经济制裁和政治打压政策，希望通过强硬施压迫使军政府让位。而缅甸军政府一方面对内实行专制统治，镇压昂山素季为首的反对党的民主运动，一方面也在不断探寻民主化的道路，推出了“七步走民主路线图”。2010年，缅甸举行1990年后首次多党制大选，当选的吴登盛政府大胆实施了诸多民主改革措施，推进民族和平进程，并与昂山素季实现和解。美国奥巴马政府在对缅甸政策进行评估后，抓住缅甸改革的契机作出了第二次重大调整，采取接触加制裁的“务实接触”政策，通过“既拉又压”的方式推动缅甸转型。美国解除了对缅甸的大部分制裁，两国高层往来频繁，双边关系解冻回暖，逐渐走向关系正常化。 奥巴马政府调整对缅政策的主要考虑是，美国过去的“孤立加制裁”政策没有取得预想的效果，对缅影响力反而日渐式微。面对中国力量的崛起，美国需解决横亘在美国与东盟之间的缅甸问题，并且拉拢缅甸，加强对该地区的影响力，以强化对中国的牵制和防范，重振美国在亚洲的领导地位。不管是“孤立制裁”还是“务实接触”，美国对缅政策的目标始终是促进缅甸的民主和人权，打造一个亲美政权，以实现美国的地缘政治利益和推广民主人权的目标。 美国向缅甸“输出民主”的手段主要包括政治外交、经济和软权力三方面。在外交上，1988年后美缅外交关系降级，官方接触微乎其微，美国主要通过多边层面施压，如将缅甸问题提交联合国安理会，联合欧盟、日本等国实施制裁，阻挠缅甸参与东盟议程。吴登盛政府上台后，美国通过官员访问等方式对缅甸政府和民主派两面下注，督促其加快改革步伐。在经济上，经济制裁是美国对缅施压的最重要手段。1988年后，美国对缅制裁不断加码，禁止了对缅进行投资和援助，停止双边贸易往来，冻结军政府高官的资产。2011年后，制裁措施逐步解除，但美国依然没有放弃这根“大棒”，并同时增加了对缅经济和人道主义援助。在软权力方面，美国始终没有放弃对缅甸的民主渗透，其手段包括资助非政府组织、开展文化教育交流、进行媒体舆论宣传等。 缅甸的政治转型在东亚具有代表性。虽然从根本上讲，一国的政治转型都是其内部政治社会发展所决定的，但外部因素也或多或少起到推动作用。缅甸的民主改革是内外因素共同作用的结果，其中内因是主要因素，但外因也不可或缺。美国对缅“输出民主”的影响体现在，美国的制裁和孤立政策给缅甸新军人集团以强大的外来压力。军政府为巩固国内政权，解决合法性危机，改善外部环境，减少对中国的依赖，启动了政治转型。而吴登盛政府上台并开启改革后，努力得到美国对缅甸转型的认可，借与美国改善关系促使美国等西方国家尽快解除制裁，从而获得更多外国投资和援助，平衡周边国家尤其是中国对缅甸的影响。同时，美国通过援助和民主渗透影响缅甸社会，支持公民社会和民主力量的发展，甚至在背后操纵民主运动，推动了缅甸社会变革的诉求。应该说，没有美国不遗余力的施压和推动，缅甸的民主转型不会进行得这么快。 2015年，缅甸再次举行大选，反对党全国民主联盟赢得压倒性胜利，于2016年4月顺利上台执政。虽然已举行了多党制大选并完成政党轮替，但缅甸的民主化还不彻底，军队依然在政治舞台发挥举足轻重的作用。由于缅甸转型进入瓶颈期，有所停滞，其国内罗兴亚人的人权问题爆发，美缅关系向前发展的动力不足，且龃龉不断。缅甸并未如美国所愿倒向西方，而是奉行务实的中立主义外交政策，与东盟和周边大国发展平衡外交，并在经济发展和和平进程问题上加强了对中国的倚重。美国对此大失所望，并利用罗兴亚人危机批评、敲打昂山素季。缅甸国内对美国民主的虚伪性和口惠而实不至感到不满，而且逐渐意识到，照搬西方的民主制度并不会带来国家的和平与繁荣，缅甸需要摸索适合自己的发展模式。美缅关系出现的波折和美国对昂山素季态度的转变值得密切关注。 缅甸进行民主化改革后，缅甸外交政策的调整对中缅关系及中国在缅利益造成了一定冲击，主要体现在一些在缅重大建设项目被中断或遭遇挫折，中国企业的竞争优势弱化，缅甸民间的反华声音明显增强。这既是缅甸民主化和西方影响力加强带来的负面影响，也是中国自身对缅交往中积累问题的爆发。随着中国逐渐调整对缅政策，以及缅甸加强对华倚重，中缅关系经历一段低谷后重新回暖。未来，在两国领导层的推动下，借助“一带一路”建设的契机，中缅友好关系会保持稳步向前发展。 关键词：美缅关系；政治转型；民主输出；制裁

 Major changes have taken place in Myanmar since 2010, when the military government stepped down, and the elected government came to power and initiated drastic democratic reforms. Myanmar is a successful case study with transforming the authoritarian country into a democratic country in recent years. It has significant meaning to study the reasons for Myanmar's political transition and its influence, and the role of the United States for enriching the political transition theory and understanding the U.S. “Democratic Export” strategy more deeply, and also has a strong practical value on improving the decision-making and practice of China's peripheral diplomacy. With the change of domestic situation in Myanmar and the adjustment of American diplomatic strategy, the relationship between the United States and Myanmar has undergone two major changes since the establishment of diplomatic ties. During the era of the Cold War, the United States gave Myanmar economic and military assistance to prevent the country from tilting towards Communism. After the Tatmadaw took power in a military coup in 1988, relationship between the United States and Myanmar deteriorated sharply. The United States imposed economic sanctions and political suppression on Myanmar for decades, hoping to bring the military government down through tough pressure. The military government implemented absolute rule at home and suppressed the democracy movement of the opposition party led by Aung San Suu Kyi, meanwhile it kept exploring the road of democratization and launched the “Seven-step Road Map of Democracy”. In 2010, Myanmar held the first multiparty election since 1990, and the Union Solidarity and Development Party led by U Thein Sein won the election. The Thein sein government had boldly implemented many democratic reform measures, advanced the national peace process and achieved reconciliation with Aung San Suu Kyi. In 2009, the U.S. President Obama made the second big adjustment on U.S.-Myanmar relationship after he took office and evaluated the policy toward Myanmar. The Obama administration adopted “Pragmatic Engagement”policy to promote democracy in Myanmar, which consisted of continued economic sanctions and direct communication with Myanma. The United States lifted most sanctions against Myanmar, and conducted frequent high-level diplomatic exchanges. The bilateral relationship started to thaw and gradually moved toward normalization. The main reason for the Obama administration to adjust its policy towards Myanmar was that the U.S. policy of “isolation and sanctions” in the past had not achieved the expected results. The military regime was stable, while the U.S. influence on Myanmar had declined. In the face of the rise of China's influence, the United States needed to solve the Myanmar issue that had lain between the United States and the ASEAN, and enhance its influence in the region, so as to strengthen the containment of China and revitalize U.S. leading position in Asia. Whether it is “isolattion and sanctions” or “pragmatic engagement", the goal of the U.S. policy toward Myanmar has always been to promote democracy and human rights in Myanmar and create a pro-American regime to achieve U.S. geopolitical interests in the region. The approaches of “exporting democracy" to Myanmar are mainly about political diplomacy, economy and soft power. In terms of diplomacy, America had little official contact with the military regime since it downgraded diplomatic relations with Myanmar after 1988. So the United States had mainly used multilateral platforms to impose pressure upon Myanmar, such as submitting the Myanmar issue to the UN Security Council, joining the European Union, Japan and other countries in imposing sanctions and obstructing Myanmar's participation in the ASEAN agenda. After the Thein Sein government came to power, the United States restored diplomatic relations with Myanmar, and bet on the government and the pro-democracy camp through frequent official visits, urging them to speed up democratic reform. On the economic front, economic sanctions are the most important means of U.S. pressure. The United States had increased sanctions against Myanmar, banning investment and aid, stopping bilateral trade and freezing the assets of senior military officials. Since 2011, the sanctions were gradually lifted, but the United States still did not give up this “big stick”. At the same time, the U.S. has increased economic and humanitarian aid to Myanmar. In terms of soft power, the United States has never given up its democratic infiltration to Myanmar by financing non-government organizations, conducting cultural education exchanges and carrying out media publicity. Myanmar's political transition is typical in East Asia. Although fundamentally speaking, one country's political transformation is determined by its internal political and social development, external factors also more or less play a driving role. The influence of the United States on Myanmar's political transition is reflected in that the U.S. sanctions and isolation policies put pressure on the military regime to reform. In order to gain economic development opportunities, change the isolated situation and strengthen the regime's legitimacy, the military was forced to make changes. After the reform was initiated, President Thein Sein also hoped to improve relations with the United States, urged Western countries to lift sanctions as soon as possible and gained international recognition for Myanmar's reform, so as to obtain more foreign investment and assistance and balance the influence of neighboring countries, especially China, on Myanmar. At the same time, the United States has influenced Myanmar’s society through aid and democratic infiltration, for example, supporting the development of civil society and democratic forces, and even manipulating the democratic movement from behind. All these efforts have promoted the demand for reform in the society. It is fair to say that Myanmar's transition to democracy would not have happened so quickly without American pressure and infiltration. In conclusion, democratic reform in Myanmar is the result of the interaction of internal factors and external factors. In 2015, Aung San Suu Kyi-led National League for Democracy won a landslide victory in the general election, and came to power in April 2016. Although multiparty elections have been held and the ruling political parties have been replaced, the democratization of Myanmar is still incomplete, and the military still plays a significant role in the political arena, so there is a long way to go before the political transition is finished. Due to Myanmar’s transition stepped into the period of stagnation, and the problem of human rights situation of the Rohingyas in Myanmar became prominent again, and the momentum of bilateral relationship was insufficient. Even though the NLD came to power in 2016, the relations between the United States and Myanmar did not heat up as expected. Instead, there is constantly discord. Aung San Suu Kyi pursued a pragmatic foreign policy of neutrality, developed balanced diplomacy with ASEAN and neighboring powers, and increased reliance on China for economic development and peace process. The United States was disillusioned and used the Rohingya crisis to criticize and beat up Aung San Suu Kyi and Myanmar. The ups and downs in the U.S.-Myanmar relations and the shift in U.S. attitudes towards Aung San Suu Kyi deserve close attention. The development of the U.S.-Myanmar relationship demonstrates that the “democracy export” strategy of the U.S. to developing countries is to fully serve America’s own interests, rather than to help these countries to change the situation of despotism and backwardness. If a totalitarian state is pro-America, the United States can still live in peace with it, even become its ally. If a country does not follow the U.S. footsteps, even if it is on a path to democratic transition, America will suppress it. At present, there is more and more resentment at the hypocrisy and rhetorical benefits of American democracy inside Myanmar. And there is a growing realization that copying Western democracies will not bring peace and prosperity to the country, Myanmar must find its own development model. After the democratic reform in Myanmar, the adjustment of Myanmar's foreign policy and the development of U.S.-Myanmar relations had a certain impact on China-Myanmar relations and China's interests in Myanmar, which was mainly reflected in the interruption or setbacks of some major Chinese construction projects in Myanmar, the weakening of the competitive advantage of Chinese enterprises and the obvious growing of anti-China voices among Myanmar people. This is not only the negative impact brought by Myanmar's democratization and the strengthening of Western forces, but also the outbreak of China's own problems in its exchanges with Myanmar. However, China has gradually adjusted its policy towards Myanmar by strengthening top-level design and improving investment behaviors, so that China-Myanmar relations have recovered after a low period. In the future, with the promotion of the leaders of the two countries and the opportunity of “One Belt One Road” construction, China-Myanmar friendly relations will maintain steady development. Keywords: U.S.-Myanmar relationship; political transition; democratic export; sanction