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中国太平洋岛国战略研究
中文摘要

 由于历史和现实的原因,太平洋岛国自从独立之后就一直处在国际舞台的边缘地位。但不可否认的是,在全球范围内太平洋岛国又是任何大国都无法忽视的地区。中国在太平洋岛国地区的利益诉求正在加大,中国对该区域事务的关注程度和介入力度也在逐年增加。未来随着中国的快速崛起,太平洋岛国对中国的战略重要性会进一步提升,中国对该区域地区事务的关注程度和介入力度只会增加不会减弱。 国内学术界对太平洋岛国的研究总体上尚处于起步阶段,专门研究太平洋岛国的成果还为数不多,特别是以“中国太平洋岛国战略”为相关选题的专门研究成果更不多见。这种情况远不能满足中国的快速崛起及其海洋战略发展的现实需要。本选题基于国家发展海洋强国的战略需要与太平洋岛国研究成果薄弱的现状,以中国的太平洋岛国战略为研究对象,系统对中国太平洋岛国战略的缘起、演进、挑战与问题、实施路径等方面进行综合研究,以期为中国未来的太平洋岛国战略提供政策建议。 中国不同时期的太平洋岛国战略均属于中国对外战略的重要组成部分。中国的太平洋岛国战略可运用华尔兹的层次分析法进行研究,中国不同时期的太平洋岛国战略与世界格局、中国国内发展战略、政治领导人的认知与偏好息息相关。中国太平洋岛国战略可以划分为两个时期和四个阶段。自1975年中国和斐济正式建交至今,中国太平洋岛国战略已经走过40多年的历程,以冷战结束为分水岭大体可以划分为冷战前中国太平洋岛国战略的形成时期和冷战后的战略深化时期,而这两个时期又可具体划分为接触与建交、战略三原则提出、深化合作、新的历史发展四个阶段。 中国在太平洋岛国地区有安全利益、政治利益、经济利益以及文化利益等战略需求。大陆和台湾竞争性的外交承认的需求、在以联合国为代表的多边国际机制中的太平洋14个岛国12张选票支持的需求以及为获得发展经济所需要的自然资源的需求等被国内外学者公认为是中国推进其太平洋岛国战略的重要动力。进入新世纪以来,上述三个战略需求不仅由于国际环境的变化而更加突出,而且呈现出和平崛起趋势的中国在太平洋岛国安全利益、政治利益、经济利益、文化利益等方面的需求也有所增长。大国博弈以及台湾因素是影响中国太平洋岛国战略实施的重要因素。中国的软实力以及太平洋岛国地区的华人华侨也在一定程度上成为中国太平洋岛国战略实施的重要影响因素。在战略目标方面,同其它大国一样,中国有与太平洋岛国进行经济合作的需求,获得经济发展所需要的来自于该区域的矿产、渔业、林业、工业原料等自然资源,有着拓展出口市场的需求。中国在该区域也需要一个能够安全通航的良好环境,以使得本国与别国和地区之间的能源、原材料、工业制成品的畅行无阻。14个太平洋岛国是多个多边国际舞台的一个不容忽视的票仓,中国和其它国家在多边国际机构中希望得到这些来自于太平洋岛国的选票支持。除此之外,中国也有着不同于别国的独特之处。首先,中国在此区域外交承认的需求比较突出。其次,避免大国博弈时太平洋岛国倒向西方,甚至太平洋岛国在多边国际场合集体反对中国。进入新时期和平崛起的中国在此区域的诉求亦在增长,诸如在推进“一带一路”的建设过程中需要与太平洋岛国加强合作,在国家利益日益全球化的当代更加需要维护该地区日益增多的中国公民和中资机构的生命、财产安全和发展利益,亦需要与多个太平洋岛国加强对中国外逃腐败官员的追逃和打击的合作,避免太平洋岛国成为反中分子、分裂分子的落脚地等需求更加突出。中国太平洋岛国战略呈现出符合中国战略文化传统和兼顾国内国际两个因素的主要特性。 在战略实施措施方面,中国通过高层互访、外交援助、互惠合作、增强在太平洋岛国区域内的软实力、加强与太平洋岛国内部华人华侨的沟通与合作等措施来夯实本国与太平洋岛国的双边和多边关系,以维护自身在该区域的战略利益。与在地区事务中起到重要作用的主要大国相同,中国也对太平洋岛国提供援助。外交援助在中国太平洋岛国战略的实施中一直占据重要地位。不同于域内大国澳大利亚、新西兰,也不同于域外大国美国和日本,在双边援助方面,中国在援助原则、援助对象的选择方面与其它大国不同。在多边援助方面,中国既参与又主导此区域的多边合作援助机制,并且还支持太平洋岛国独立创立多边合作机制的发展,以实际行动支持此区域内太平洋岛国主导的地区主义的发展。中国尊重太平洋岛国的主权,不干涉太平洋岛国各国的内政,不参与西方国家以改变内政为目的的制裁,不以改变内政为援助条件。 中国在太平洋岛国地区取得了相应的战略成效。中国在太平洋岛国基本实现了战略预期目标。在目标领域效果方面,中国在该区域最主要和最突出的战略目标就是获得和中国国家安全息息相关的主权承认,即获得太平洋岛国对“一个中国”的外交承认、承认中华人民共和国为代表中国的唯一合法政府,遏制打压“台独”势力。目前在该区域的14个国家中和中国建立有外交关系的有巴布亚新几内亚、斐济、萨摩亚、纽埃、库克群岛、汤加、密克罗尼西亚联邦、瓦努阿图8个国家。在非目标领域效果方面,中国在一些没有取得西方国家认可的议题方面取得了部分太平洋岛国的支持。从对中国南海倡议的支持、对中国纪念抗日战争胜利七十周年纪念活动的支持、积极回应中国“一带一路”倡议三个案例中可以显现出太平洋岛国在国际舞台上对中国的支持,可以显现出中国在太平洋岛国战略实施在非目标领域所达成的效果。 中国太平洋岛国战略实施面临着诸多挑战,具体来看,中国太平洋岛国战略的实施主要受到来自于三个层面的挑战,即来自于太平洋岛国内部的挑战、外部环境的挑战和中国自身的挑战。在来自于太平洋岛国内部的挑战方面,太平洋岛国内部的不稳定性给中国的太平洋岛国战略带来变数,太平洋岛国内部对中国太平洋岛国战略的质疑和不信任为中国太平洋岛国战略实施增添了负面影响,一些太平洋岛国政府不容乐观的信誉为中国与太平洋岛国的合作尤其是经济合作增添了不少变数。在来自于外部环境的挑战方面,域内外大国的太平洋岛国战略无疑加剧了该地区大国之间的战略博弈,这对中国与该地区岛国的关系也产生较大影响,推动中国不得不加大对该地区的外交关注和战略投入。中国太平洋岛国战略的实施同样面临着来自中国自身的挑战,这突出表现在台湾问题的长期存在及两岸在太平洋岛国地区的外交竞争。 未来中国太平洋岛国的战略实施在多边层面和双边层面均有很大的提升空间,需要通过多边机制优化战略实施环境,需要利用双边外交深化与太平洋岛国的关系。在多边层面,中国需要借助国际机制丰富多边外交,尊重本地区各类行为体的利益,分类主导地区事务实现相互尊重,重视非政府组织的作用,提高对太平洋岛国的援助质量。在双边层面,中国需要利用双边外交深化与太平洋岛国的关系。通过双边外交与地区机制强化与建交国家的合作,继续通过双边外交的方式向其提供援助,支持其社会和经济的发展。在援助方面探讨合适的方式同西方国家进行合作,让西方国家认识和感受到中国在此区域并无争夺地区主导权的企图,以及中国为提升当地治理水平、促进当地发展所做出的努力,以减少中国威胁论和回应中国的新殖民主义论调。对于建交关系友好国家,可以适时考虑提供更多的援助以在该地区形成良好的示范效应,适时在其中拓展特殊的“合作伙伴”国家。对于对华关系的摇摆国家,援助要进行合理的规划,一些合作项目要考虑到相应的风险。中国需要通过经贸合作和多边机制加强与未建交国家的交流与沟通。中国日益崛起的现实是促使这些国家的民众心向中国大陆从而促使其政府复交的天然催化剂。中国需要通过援助工程的有效管理推进民生项目的建设。无论是建交国家或是未建交国家,中国均需要对本国企业在包括太平洋岛国在内的海外区域的投资行为进行引导和管理,尽量使其在投资谋利的同时与中国的对外战略和投资对象国的发展规划能够相辅相成,或者至少不与中国的对外战略相悖。鉴于太平洋岛国本就地域狭小,资源紧张,中国在太平洋岛国地区的投资的项目和工程更应避免烂尾工程。 关键词:中国;太平洋岛国;战略利益;挑战

英文摘要

 Due to historical and realistic reasons, Pacific Island Countries are always on the brink of the international stage after independence. Despite this situation, no one can deny the fact that this region can not be ignored by great powers of the world. In this region, China's interest is growing year by year, China are paying more and more attention to regional affairs. The investment of China is also increasing year by year. With the constant rise of China in the future, the strategic importance of the Pacific Island Countries of China will further increase, in this region the attention and involvement from China will only increase and will not weaken. The study of Pacific Island Countries in domestic academic circles is still in its infancy, there have been few studies dedicated to Pacific Island Countries, the results of a special study on China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries are few. This situation is far from meeting the needs of China's marine strategic development, and it is even less able to provide advice in the study of countermeasures. This study is keenly focused on the strategic needs of China for the development of marine powers and the weak research results of Pacific Island Countries, taking China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries as the research object and will make a comprehensive study of the origin, evolution, challenges and problems of China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries, as well as its implementation path and future proposals, and provide policy recommendations of China's future Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries. China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries at different times belong to the regional strategies under its own global strategies at different times. It can be studied using Waltz's analytic hierarchy process, China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries at different times is closely related to the World Pattern, China's domestic development strategy, and the perceptions and preferences of political leaders. Towards Pacific Island Countries, the strategy of China can be divided into two periods and four stages. Since the formal establishment of diplomatic relations with Fiji in 1975, it has passed 42 years by 2017. The strategy can be roughly divided into two periods with the end of the Cold War as watershed, and these two periods can be roughly divided into four stages. The two periods were divided into the period of strategic formation before the Cold War and the period of strategic deepening after the Cold War. The four stages are divided into the beginning of contact and diplomatic relations, the proposal of the three strategic principles for the region, the period of a fierce competition between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, the period of deepening cooperation on economy and the new period of historical development. China has security interests, political interests, economic interests and cultural interests in this region. The need for competitive diplomatic recognition of the mainland and Taiwan, and the demand for 12 votes from the 14 Pacific Island Countries represented in the multilateral international mechanism represented by the United Nations and the need to obtain the natural resources needed for economic development are recognized by many domestic and foreign scholars as China's outstanding needs in this region. In the new era, not only have these three outstanding needs become more prominent due to the continuous changes in the international environment ,but China's needs in the Pacific Island Countries in terms of securities interests, political interests, economic interests and cultural interests have also increased. The big power game and the Taiwan factor are the important factors that affect the implementation of China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries. China's soft power and overseas Chinese in the Pacific Island have also affected the implementation of China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries to some extent. In terms of strategic objectives, China, like other major countries, has the need for economic cooperation with Pacific Island Countries. It needs to obtain natural resources from the region such as minerals, fisheries, forestry and industrial raw materials for economic development, and it has the need to expand its export market. It also needs a good environment for safe navigation in the region to allow unimpeded access to energy, raw materials and manufactured goods between the country and other countries and regions. The 14 Pacific Island Countries are a ticket warehouse that can not be ignored in multiple multilateral international occasions. China and other countries hope to receive these votes from Pacific Island Countries on multilateral international occasions. But China is also unique from other countries. First, China's need for diplomatic recognition in the region stands out. Second, to avoid potential big power game when the Pacific Island Countries fall to the West, jointly adopt sanctions against China, impose an embargo on China, control the flow of resources to China, block waterways and other measures, and avoid Pacific Island Countries collectively oppose China on multilateral and international occasions. China's peaceful rise into the new era is also growing in demand in the region. There are many examples which are obviously to be found. In advancing the Belt and Road initiative, China needs to strengthen cooperation with Pacific Island Countries. In a time which the national interest is increasingly globalized, the need to safeguard the lives, property and development interests of the region's growing number of Chinese citizens and Chinese institutions is even greater. China needs to step up cooperation with several Pacific Island Countries to chase and crack down on China's flight of corrupt officials, so as to prevent Pacific Island Countries from becoming places for anti-Chinese elements and separatists. These needs are becoming more prominent in the near future. China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries shows the main characteristics that accord with China's strategic culture tradition and take into account both domestic and international factors. In terms of strategic implementation, China has strengthened bilateral and multilateral relations with Pacific Island Countries through high-level visits, diplomatic assistance, mutually beneficial cooperation, enhanced communication and cooperation with overseas Chinese in this region, and enhanced Soft Power in the Pacific Island Countries, to safeguard their strategic interests in this region. Like major countries that play an important role in regional affairs, China also provides assistance to Pacific Island Countries. Foreign aid has always played an important role in the implementation of China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries and will continue to be the most important implementation route for China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries for a long period of time to come. Unlike Australia and New Zealand, the major countries in the region, as well as the United States and Japan, China differs from other major countries in terms of the principle of aid and the choice of aid recipients. In the area of multilateral assistance, China participates in and leads multilateral cooperation and aid mechanisms in the region, it also supports the development of multilateral cooperation mechanisms independently created by Pacific Island Countries and supports the development of regionalism led by Pacific Island Countries in the region through practical actions. It strictly respects the sovereignty of Pacific Island Countries, does not interfere in the internal affairs of Pacific Island Countries, does not participate in sanctions aimed at changing internal affairs of Western countries, and does not make aid conditional on changing internal affairs. There are no sanctions, wiretaps or other attempts to control Pacific Island Countries. It has achieved certain strategic results in Pacific Island Countries. The results of China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries have been mixed. It has achieved some of its strategic objectives in the Pacific Island Countries, while some have not yet been achieved. The country has previously had some negative impacts on the implementation of the strategy and has also attracted a lot of criticism. In terms of effectiveness in the target areas, the most important and prominent strategic goal of China in the region is to obtain the sovereign recognition that is closely related to China's national security, namely, to obtain the diplomatic recognition of the “One China” by the Pacific Island Countries and to recognize the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government representing China ,to contain and suppress the power of “Taiwan” independence. There are 14 countries in this region and diplomatic relations are now established in 8 countries. These countries are Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Samoa, Niue, the Cook Islands, Tonga, the Federated States of Micronesia and Vanuatu. In terms of effectiveness in non-target areas, China has gained the support of some Pacific Island Countries on issues that have not been recognized by Western countries. Support for the South China Sea initiative, China's commemoration of 70〓 anniversary of the victory of the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, and its positive response to China's Belt and Road Initiative are three examples of Pacific Island Countries' support for China on the international stage. It can show the results achieved in the non-target areas of China's strategic implementation in the Pacific Island Countries. In terms of strategic efficiency, the strategic efficiency of Pacific Island Countries of China can be said to maintain a normal level. Although there are material contributions, it can also be said that it has remained within a limited and reasonable limit, and has played an important role in safeguarding domestic interests. The positive and negative impacts of the implementation of the strategy in Pacific Island Countries are within certain limits. In terms of positive impact, China's strategic implementation has been praised for accelerating the development of Pacific Island Countries, demonstrating the responsibility for the world and accordingly establishing a national image of a responsible major country in the international community. In terms of negative impacts, the growth of investment and trade between China and Pacific Island Countries has been accused of questioning “neo-colonialism” , and China's strategic implementation in the Pacific Island Countries has been criticized by some commentators as expanding its sphere of influence. China aid has been accused of exacerbating corruption in local governments, undermining Western efforts to promote “good governance” and “effective governance”. The negative image of China in the eyes of many Western countries and some island elites has further solidified and deepened. The implementation of China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries faces challenges that can not be ignored. The challenges are from three levels: from Pacific Island Countries, from the external environment and from China itself. In the level of Pacific Island Countries, instability within the Pacific Island Countries has brought uncertainty to China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries, doubts and distrust of China within the Pacific Island Countries have added a negative impact to the implementation of China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries, some Pacific Island Countries do not have good credibility and this adds the uncertainty to the cooperation especially in the economic field. In the level of external environment, the strategy of major powers toward Pacific Island Countries has undoubtedly intensified the strategic game between the major powers in this region, this also has had a great impact on China's relations with Pacific Island Countries and has forced China to increase its diplomatic attention and strategic investment in the region. In the level of China, the challenge is highlighted in the long-term existence of Taiwan issue and the diplomatic competition between two sides of the Taiwan Strait in this region. In the future, there is much room for the strategic implementation of China's Strategy toward Pacific Island Countries at both the multilateral and bilateral levels. The strategic implementation environment needs to be optimized through multilateral mechanisms. It also needs to use bilateral diplomacy to deepen relations with Pacific Island Countries. At the multilateral level, China needs to make good use of international mechanisms to enrich multilateral diplomacy, respect the interests of various actors in the region, ensure mutual respect in regional affairs, value the role of non-governmental organizations, and improve the quality of assistance to Pacific Island Countries.At the bilateral level, China needs to use bilateral diplomacy to deepen its ties with Pacific Island Countries. China needs to strengthen cooperation with countries that have diplomatic relations through bilateral diplomacy and regional mechanisms. Continue to provide assistance to them through bilateral diplomacy in support of their social and economic development. To explore appropriate ways to cooperate with Western countries in the area of assistance in order to let the Western countries recognize and feel that China has no attempt to compete for regional dominance in this region, and China's efforts to improve local governance and promote local development to reduce the criticism and argument of China's threat theory and China's neo-colonialism. For countries with firm diplomatic ties, we can consider providing more assistance at the appropriate time to create a good demonstration effect in the region and expand “partner” countries in the region. For swing countries, aid needs to be well planned, and some cooperation projects need to take into account the corresponding risks. China needs to strengthen exchange and communication with countries that have not established diplomatic relations through economic and trade cooperation and multilateral mechanisms. The rising reality of China is a natural catalyst for the people of these countries to turn their hearts to the mainland and, consequently, their governments to return to diplomatic relations. With regard to aid projects, China needs to promote the construction of People's Livelihood Projects through the effective management of Aid Projects. It also needs to guide and manage the investment activities of its enterprises in overseas regions, including the Pacific Island Countries. Try to make investment profitable while complementing, or at least not contradicting, China's foreign strategy and the development plans of the countries to which it invests. Given the small size and resource constraints of the Pacific Island Countries, the projects of China in this region must avoid becoming rotten project. Key Words: China, Pacific Island Countries, Strategic Interests ,Challenges

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