机场跑道安全关系到航空器能否安全起飞和降落，是整个机场运行保障工作的重点。开展多角度、多层次的跑道安全风险演化机理研究，剖析风险演化阶段、演化网络、演化动力学以及演化博弈，对于民航航空安全以及风险管理方法运用具有重要的理论意义。对偏/冲出跑道、跑道混淆、跑道侵入进行深入研究，有利于减轻与跑道运行相关的风险，对于保证航空安全、进一步降低事故率、减少人员伤亡和财产损失具有重要的现实意义。 本文以机场跑道安全风险为研究对象，从演化机理的角度，对跑道安全风险演化的关键问题进行系统化的研究，主要包括以下五个方面的内容： 首先，在界定跑道安全风险内涵的基础上，厘清了跑道混淆、偏/冲出跑道、跑道侵入的概念、特点以及影响因素。基于扎根理论和解释结构模型分析了跑道安全风险影响因素，两种方法相互结合，得出了机场跑道安全风险影响因素概念模型。 其次，基于系统动力学对跑道安全风险影响因素相互耦合机理进行分析，分别构建了人为因素子系统、设备设施因素子系统、客观环境因素子系统、管理因素子系统以及总系统的系统流图，仿真结果显示了跑道安全风险因素的演化趋势，并从结构调控和参数调控两方面提出了政策建议。 再者，构建了跑道安全风险演化的拓扑结构模型和BA无标度网络演化模型，在传统病毒传染SIS模型的基础上提出了考虑连接强度的基于子系统的风险传染SIS模型，对个体行为因素、网络结构、稳态风险密度、风险传染速度进行了仿真分析。 此外，基于跑道安全风险影响因子构建了机场跑道安全风险的演化曲线模型；提出了机场跑道安全风险演化生命周期模型，从风险预警角度提出了跑道安全风险演化的生命周期修正模型；运用基于模糊贴近度和基于最小接近度的生命周期判定模型来判定跑道安全风险演化阶段。 最后，构建了基于支付函数矩阵的三方演化博弈模型，将系统动力学与博弈论相结合，对演化博弈模型中概率突变的情景以及动态监管策略下的博弈过程进行了仿真分析。 本文的创新点主要有：构建了机场跑道安全风险演化的系统动力学模型，通过结构调控和参数调控的仿真结果提出跑道安全管理政策：在传统病毒传染SIS模型的基础上提出了考虑连接强度的基于子系统的风险传染SIS模型，构建了跑道安全风险演化的拓扑结构模型和BA无标度网络演化模型；基于演化曲线对机场跑道安全风险演化生命周期进行判定，提出了跑道安全风险演化的生命周期修正模型；将系统动力学与博弈论相结合，构建了机场跑道安全利益相关方演化博弈模型。 *本文为国家自然科学基金“机场飞行区安全风险演化机理及预警仿真系统研究”(71271163)资助。 关键词：跑道安全，演化机理，系统动力学，复杂网络，演化博弈

Runway safety is an important part of aviation safety, which is not only the material base of aircraft, but also the first condition of takeoff and landing. It is of great theoretical significance to research the evolution mechanism from the perspective of multi-angle and multi-level, including evolution phases, evolution network, evolution kinetics and evolutionary game. The deeply study of runway confusion, runway excursions and runway incursions would reduce the risks associated with runway operations. It makes the runway in a safe and orderly state and provides a reliable technical support to improve runway safety management. It has important practical significance to ensure aviation safety, reduce the accident rate further, casualties and property losses. Taking the airport runway safety risks as the research object, the key issues of runway risks have been researched from the perspective of evolution mechanism, including the following five aspects. Firstly, on the basis of defining runway safety risks, the concept, characteristics and influencing factors of runway confusion, runway excursion and runway incursion were clarified. The influencing factors of runway safety were analyzed based on grounded theory and interpretative structural modeling, and the conceptual model of airport runway safety risks was proposed combined with these two methods. Secondly, analyzing the coupling mechanism of runway safety risk factors based on system dynamics, human factor subsystem, equipment facility subsystem, objective environment subsystem, management factor subsystem and total system were constructed respectively. The simulation results showed the evolution trend of runway safety risk factors and the policy suggestions were put forward from the aspects of structural regulation and parameter regulation. Thirdly, the topology model and BA scale-free network model of runway safety risk evolution were built. Based on the SIS model of traditional virus infection, the SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) model considering connection strength based on subsystem was proposed. Individual behavioral factors, the network structure, the risk density in steady state and the risk propagation velocity were simulated and analyzed. Fourthly, the evolution curve model of airport runway safety risk was put forward based on the influencing factors. The life cycle model of airport runway safety risk evolution was proposed, and the correction model was put forward from the perspective of risk early-warning. The evolution phases could be assessed by the method of degree of closeness or minimum proximity. Fifthly, the three-dimensional evolutionary game model based on the payment function matrix was constructed. Combining the system dynamics with the game theory, the simulation process of the probabilistic mutation in the evolutionary game model and the dynamic process under the dynamic supervision strategy were simulated and analyzed. The main innovations of this dissertation are as follows: Firstly, the system dynamics model of runway risk evolution was constructed, and the policy suggestions were put forward from the aspects of structural regulation and parameter regulation. Secondly, the SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) model considering connection strength based on subsystem was proposed and the topology model and BA scale-free network model of runway risk evolution were built. Thirdly, the life cycle assessment model of runway risk evolution was built based on the evolution curve and the correction model of evolution phases was put forward. Fourthly, combining the system dynamics with the game theory, the evolutionary game model of runway safety stakeholders was constructed. ①*National nature science found: "Research on the evolution mechanism and early warning simulation system of safety risks in the flight area of airport" (authorized number 71271163) Keywords: Runway safety, Evolution mechanism, System dynamics, Complex network, Evolutionary game theory