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空间地理格局演化对我国产业结构升级的影响
中文摘要

本文在空间经济学的理论框架下研究空间地理格局演化对产业结构升级的影响,试图回答以下三个问题。第一,全国层面上,空间地理格局演化对产业结构升级、产业结构高度化和产业结构合理化的影响有何异同?第二,区域层面上,空间地理格局演化对产业结构升级、产业结构高度化和产业结构合理化的影响又有何异同?第三,我国政府应该如何抓住空间地理格局演化的机遇,优化产业结构,促进产业结构升级?文章内容主要分为理论与实证两部分。 理论部分包括以下三个内容。第一,关于集聚经济。研究了集聚经济对产业结构升级的影响路径。集聚经济通过要素配置和创新推动产业结构升级。第二,关于劳动力流动。分析了熟练劳动力的流动对产业的空间结构的影响。第三,关于外商直接投资(FDI)和国际贸易。IFDI通过人力资本流动效应、示范与学习效应、竞争效应和前后向关联效应促进技术外溢从而推动东道国产业结构升级。但是由于技术压制、技术内部化等效应的存在使得IFDI倾向于抑制东道国产业结构升级。OFDI则通过直接传导机制和逆向传导机制来推动国内企业技术进步从而促进母国产业结构升级。国际贸易主要通过直接传导机制和间接传导机制影响产业结构升级。 实证部分包括以下三个内容。第一,空间地理格局演变研究。首先从全国角度、区域角度和产业角度研究了空间地理格局演化的总体特征,研究发现,空间地理格局演化呈现从东部沿海向中西部地区转移的趋势,从中心-外围结构逐渐演变为多级发展的形式,各区域逐渐呈现经济服务化的趋势。其次从空间地理格局演化的驱动力角度分析,结果显示,集聚经济,要素迁移和国际贸易基本上都呈现出从东部向中西部转移的趋势。证明了三者推动空间地理格局演化的观点。第二,空间相关性研究。构建产业结构升级、产业结构高度化和产业结构合理化三个指标进行研究,分析发现:1)从变动趋势来看,三个指标的四分位图均显示中心-外围特征逐渐明显。2)从全域自相关来看,三个指标均存在空间正相关性。3)从局域指标来看,2004年和2014年大部分省区集中在高-高集聚区和低-低集聚区。但是具体到各省区,其空间集聚结构则存在差异性。第三,空间计量研究。分别从全国和区域两个层面进行空间计量分析。结论如下:首先,在全国层面上,1)产业结构升级促进性因素有服务业专业化、本地市场效应和异质型人力资本。抑制性因素包括制造业专业化、城市化经济、同质型人力资本集聚、FDI和国际贸易。2)产业结构高度化。促进性因素有地方化经济、本地市场效应、异质型人力资本集聚和国际贸易。抑制性因素仅包括FDI。3)产业结构合理化。促进性因素有城市化经济和FDI。抑制性因素包括地方化经济、本地市场效应、同质型人力资本、异质型人力资本和国际贸易。其次,在区域层面上,1)东部地区。地方化经济对产业结构升级和产业结构合理化的影响均为负,对产业结构高度化的影响则为正。城市化经济有利于产业结构高度化,不利于产业结构升级,对产业结构合理化影响不显著。本地市场效应促进了东部地区的产业结构升级,却抑制了高度化和合理化。同质型人力资本也有利于产业结构升级,而其细分异质型人力资本和同质型人力资本则分别抑制了产业结构合理化和高度化。FDI仅对产业结构高度化起抑制作用,有利于产业结构升级和合理化。此外,国际贸易抑制了产业结构高度化。2)中部地区。产业结构升级的促进性因素有本地市场效应。异质型人力资本和国际贸易均抑制了产业结构升级。产业结构高度化的促进性因素有同质型人力资本、异质型人力资本和国际贸易。抑制性因素有地方化经济和城市化经济。3)西部地区。促进产业结构升级的因素有本地市场效应,抑制产业结构升级的因素有服务业专业化和国际贸易。 最后,在前文理论研究和实证研究的基础上,对空间地理格局演化与产业结构升级、产业结构高度化和产业结构合理化的关系进行了总结,并分别从全国层面和区域层面提出相应的政策建议。 关键词:空间地理格局;集聚经济;要素迁移;国际贸易;产业结构升级

英文摘要

Based on the framework of spatial economics, the paper makes a research on the relationship between spatial geographical transitions and industrial structural upgrading, trying to answer the following questions. First, at the national level, what are the similarities and differences between the changes of spatial geography on the upgrading of industrial structure and the elevation and rationalization of industrial structure? Second, on the regional level, what are the similarities and differences between the changes of spatial geography on the upgrading of industrial structure and the elevation and rationalization of industrial structure? Third, how can government of each country grasp opportunities of transitions of spatial economy, optimize industrial structure, promote industrial upgrading? The content of the paper is mainly divided into two parts: theoretical research and empirical research. Parts of theoretical research: firstly, the impact of agglomeration economy on the upgrading of industrial structure is mainly studied. Agglomeration economy promotes the upgrading of industrial structure through factor allocation and innovation. Secondly, for labor mobility. When skilled labor flows, how the spatial structure of industry? Thirdly, foreign direct investment(FDI) and international trade. Inner foreign direct investment promotes the upgrading of industrial structure through human capital flow effect, demonstration and learning effect, competition effect and forward and backward correlation effect. However, due to the existence of the effect of technical repression and technology internalization, IFDI tends to restrain the upgrading of industrial structure. OFID is through the direct transmission mechanism and reverse transmission mechanism to promote domestic technological progress of enterprises to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure of home country. International trade mainly affects the upgrading of industrial structure through direct transmission mechanism and indirect transmission mechanism. Parts of empirical research: firstly, the evolution of spatial geography pattern. From the national perspective, regional perspective and the industrial perspective of the general characteristics, the spatial evolution of the geographical pattern of the study found that the spatial pattern of evolution has shifted from the east coast to the Midwest areas, from the core periphery structure gradually evolved into a form of multi-level development, the regional economy gradually showing the trend of service. The driving force of evolution from the spatial distribution pattern of analysis results show that agglomeration economy, factors of migration and trade basically emerged from the east to the Midwest trend, this trend and spatial pattern similarity. Therefore, it further proves that the three theories promote the evolution of spatial geographical patterns. Secondly, spatial correlation. Based on the data from 30 provinces and regions, the paper constructs three indicators such as the industrial structure upgrading, industrial structure height and rationalization. The conclusions are as follows. From the trend of change, 2004-2014 three indicators of the four bit bitmap display center - peripheral features gradually apparent. From the view of global autocorrelation, there is a positive correlation between the three indexes. In terms of local indicators, most of the provinces and regions in 2004-2014 were concentrated in the high - high concentration area and low - low concentration area. But specific to each province, there are differences in the spatial agglomeration structure. Thirdly, national level. Conclusions are as follows. Upgrading of industrial structure. The promoting factors of the upgrading of industrial structure are service industry specialization, local market effect and heterogeneous human capital. The restraining factors include specialization of manufacturing industry, homogeneous human capital, FDI and international trade. Industrial structure height. The promoting factors of the high degree of industrial structure include local economy, local market effect, homogeneous human capital and international trade. Inhibitory factors only include FDI. Rationalization of industrial structure. Promotive factors are urbanization economy and FDI. The restraining factors are local economy, local market effect, homogeneous human capital, heterogeneous human capital and international trade. Thirdly, regional level. Establish SLM model. Conclusions are as follows. Eastern region. Effect of local economic rationalization on the upgrading of industrial structure and industrial structure are negative influence on the elevation of industrial structure is positive. The city economy is conducive to the upgrading of the industrial structure and advancement, rationalization of industrial structure effect is not significant. The local market effect to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure in the East. It inhibits the advancement and rationalization. Human capital is also conducive to the upgrading of the industrial structure, and the subdivision of heterogeneous human capital and human capital are suppressed and the rationalization of industrial structure supererogation only. FDI inhibitory effect on the high degree of industrial structure. In addition, the international trade industry highly suppressed structure.. Central region. The upgrading of the industrial structure to promote the factors of local market effect. The idiosyncratic human capital and international trade inhibited the upgrading of industrial structure. The industrial structure of the promoting factors of human capital agglomeration, idiosyncratic human capital agglomeration and international trade. The inhibitory factors of local economy and city economy. Western region. The factors that promote the upgrading of the industrial structure are the local market effect, and the factors that inhibit the upgrading of the industrial structure are service industry specialization and international trade. Finally, based on the previous theoretical and empirical research, the paper summarizes the relationship between the changes of economic geography and the upgrading of industrial structure, the industrial structure and rationalization, and at last this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. Key words: transformation of spatial geography, agglomeration economy, factor transfer, international trade, industrial structural upgrading,

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